722
FXAK68 PAFC 260027
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
427 PM AKDT MON MAY 25 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3/TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A VERTICALLY STACKED BERING SEA LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING AND CONTINUES TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE ALASKA
PENINSULA.
AS THE FRONT FROM THE BERING LOW APPROACHES THE COAST TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING, A COASTAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
TERRAIN GAPS AND PASSES, ALLOWING GAP WINDS TO DEVELOP AND
INCREASE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS WILL RAMP UP FIRST, PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
SIDE OF ANCHORAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING MORE DOWN-INLET BY
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE
ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE AND EAGLE RIVER, WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FARTHER NORTH, KNIK WINDS WILL INCREASE,
BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS INTO PALMER. THESE GAP WINDS WILL BE
MOST PERSISTENT THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY EASING TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE GULF. THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL WILL FAVOR COASTAL AREAS INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND, THE
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. MEANWHILE,
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE
WESTERN KENAI TO ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU VALLEYS. SHOWERS LINGER
INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS INLAND, WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IN NATURE AS THE
PARENT LOW WEAKENS OVER THE GULF. LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING, THROUGH OVERALL RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL BE
LOWER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD TO MID TO LATE WEEK, THE PARENT LOW WEAKENS AS IT
SHIFTS INTO THE GULF, BUT MAINTAINS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
LM
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
THE LARGE, VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE BERING CONTINUES TO
TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BERING SIDE OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AKPEN COMMUNITIES, BUT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THEY TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO
BRISTOL BAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BERING, NORTHWESTERLY SMALL
CRAFT WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
PRIBILOF ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE LOW SLOWS IN ITS
TRACK AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL BRISTOL BAY AS THE KAMISHAK
GAP WIND KICKS IN. KAMISHAK GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED UNTIL THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AKPEN
AND INTO THE GULF LATER THIS WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY, GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS WINDS RELAX AND
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SCATTERED. A SECOND FRONT EXTENDING OFF
A MUCH WEAKER KAMCHATKA LOW MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
BERING SEA.
.LONG TERM FORECAST
(DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHWEST ALASKA, KODIAK ISLAND AND COASTAL AREAS
OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO NEXT MONDAY. A
WEAKENING TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE BERING STRAIT WILL PERSIST
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BRINGING SHOWERS THROUGH THE MONDAY. A
KAMCHATKA LOW REACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
EXACT TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND
CONTINUED CLOUDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY
TRAVELS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY, THE GFS MODEL HAS THIS LOW STALL IN THE CENTER OF
THE GULF WHILE THE EURO WEAKENS IT AS IT MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. THEREFORE, FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN ITS TRACK AND EFFECTS
ON SOUTHCENTRAL IS LOW.
-SS/DJ
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
CEILINGS GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 5,000 FT. AN APPROACHING FRONT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT OF THE
TURNAGAIN ARM THIS EVENING, PEAKING AROUND 30 KT BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z
TO 12Z TONIGHT. WHILE WINDS DIMINISH AROUND 12Z, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WIND DIRECTION. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A WEAKER
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND; HOWEVER, IF THESE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING MORE
NORTHERLY, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN
ABOUT 12Z AND 21Z TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER 21Z, GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS RETURN.
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