651
FXAK68 PAFC 261309
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
509 AM AKDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A LOW NEAR BRISTOL BAY IS CONTINUING TO TRACK EASTWARD THIS
MORNING AS ITS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. A
COASTAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL BUILD THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
TERRAIN WILL ALLOW GAP WINDS TO INCREASE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD START TO EASE LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND A LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, AND ALTHOUGH HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH COOK INLET INTO THIS AFTERNOON, STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS COULD KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS DRY (NORTH OF
KENAI/SOLDOTNA, THROUGH ANCHORAGE, AND THE MAT-SU). AREAS FARTHER
INLAND SUCH AS THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN CAN ALSO
EXPECT TO BE ON THE DRIER SIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE, BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AT TIMES AS WE MOVE INTO
MIDWEEK. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY
MAJOR SHIFTS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK, HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE ALASKA INTERIOR WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
WEEK. THIS COULD HAVE AN AFFECT ON THE LOW OVER THE GULF, WHERE
EASTERLY WAVES AROUND THIS LOW COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
THE LARGE BERING SEA LOW CONTINUES WEAKENING AND TRACKS OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS, HOWEVER, WARMER
AIR WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING AND SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO
ALL RAIN. GUSTY, SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LOW, KEEPING THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS, CENTRAL/EASTERN
ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA IN WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. FOR THE MAINLAND, LIGHT SHOWERY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH KAMISHAK GAP WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY. A SECOND FRONT EXTENDING OFF
A MUCH WEAKER KAMCHATKA LOW MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
BERING SEA.
KM
.LONG TERM FORECAST
(DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHWEST ALASKA, KODIAK ISLAND AND COASTAL AREAS
OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO NEXT MONDAY. A
WEAKENING TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE BERING STRAIT WILL PERSIST
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BRINGING SHOWERS THROUGH THE MONDAY. A
KAMCHATKA LOW REACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
EXACT TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND
CONTINUED CLOUDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY
TRAVELS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY, THE GFS MODEL HAS THIS LOW STALL IN THE CENTER OF
THE GULF WHILE THE EURO WEAKENS IT AS IT MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. THEREFORE, FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN ITS TRACK AND EFFECTS
ON SOUTHCENTRAL IS LOW.
-SS/DJ
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT OF
THE TURNAGAIN ARM ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS MORNING WITH
ANOTHER RESURGENCE RETURNING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR THE WIND DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE. WEAKER
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND IS FORECAST, BUT A NORTHERLY WIND AT
THE SURFACE CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH 21Z REMAINS POSSIBLE.
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