022
FXAK68 PAFC 270004
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
404 PM AKDT TUE MAY 26 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH
3/TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A LOW NEAR BRISTOL BAY CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD TONIGHT AS ITS
FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF. IN ITS WAKE, A COASTAL
RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
GAP WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM, KNIK RIVER VALLEY AND OTHER
FAVORED LOCATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND A
NEW LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF.
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHILE MUCH OF ANCHORAGE, MAT-SU, THE
COPPER BASIN, AND THE NORTHWEST KENAI PENINSULA STAY LARGELY ON
THE DRIER SIDE DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT COVERAGE REMAINS LIMITED INLAND. THIS
GENERAL PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN (TO SOMETHING MORE COMMON THIS TIME OF
YEAR) IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SHIFT TO THE GULF.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE YUKON
AND ROTATE WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH WARMER AND MORE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THUS, THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SET-UP SO FAR
THIS SUMMER FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD IN THE TRACK OF THE PRIMARY
SHORT-WAVE. IF IT ROTATES WESTWARD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL, WOULD EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN STEADY LIGHT RAIN FOR SOME
AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE MAIN TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE YUKON, THEN WOULD EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND RAIN.
THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING PRECIPITATION IS FROM THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN SOUTHWARD TO VALDEZ AND CORDOVA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD SPREAD WESTWARD TO THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY, DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORT-WAVE. NO MATTER WHAT, THERE SHOULD BE
INCREASING SIGNS OF MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME WEATHER WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES, SOME SUNSHINE, AND DAILY SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.
LM/SEB
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA DISSIPATES THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH KAMISHAK GAP DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS A NEW LOW FORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF. SIMILARLY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND
ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH TOMORROW AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE BERING TRACK INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. GUSTY, SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LOW, KEEPING THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS, CENTRAL/EASTERN
ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA IN WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
FARTHER WEST, ANOTHER FRONT EXTENDING OFF A MUCH WEAKER KAMCHATKA
LOW MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION. THIS LOW QUICKLY WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE BERING THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY LATE THIS WEEK, A POTENTIAL PATTERN
SHIFT MAY LEAD TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY)...
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MOST OVER THE WEEKEND. A BERING LOW WILL
BRING SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ISLANDS, ENDING BEFORE
SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE CENTER OF THE GULF. A WEAK LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL BRING SHOWERS TO SOUTHCENTRAL AND
KODIAK ISLAND. BREAKS IN CLOUDS COULD EMERGE AT TIMES. THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SUNDAY, THE TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE IN
THE GULF AND MOVE SOUTH WHICH WOULD END PRECIPITATION FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF SHORE CONTINUING TO BRING
SHOWERS FOR KODIAK ISLAND. A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS ENDING SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA IMPROVING CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS MODEL
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR WARMER
WEATHER.
-SS
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT OF THE TURNAGAIN ARM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR LIGHT AND NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP BY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS TOMORROW, HOWEVER, ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS THOSE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page