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FXAK68 PAFC 271250
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
450 AM AKDT WED MAY 27 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH A COASTAL RIDGE PROMOTING THE
CONTINUATION OF GAP WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM, KNIK RIVER VALLEY
AND OTHER FAVORED LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY EASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND A NEW LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF.
THE FORECAST IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN (TO
SOMETHING MORE COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR) IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH A LOW OVER THE GULF, A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AND WILL
ROTATE WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. THUS, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE SUSITNA
VALLEY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT REMAIN
CREATING CHALLENGES WITH DETERMINING THE LOCATION FOR
PRECIPITATION. IF IT ROTATES WESTWARD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL, WOULD
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN STEADY LIGHT RAIN FOR
SOME AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE MAIN TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY, THEN WOULD EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND RAIN. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING PRECIPITATION
IS FROM THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SOUTHWARD TO VALDEZ AND CORDOVA.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD WESTWARD TO THE REST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORT-WAVE. NO
MATTER WHAT, THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING SIGNS OF MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME WEATHER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, SOME SUNSHINE, AND
DAILY SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.
RUX/LM/SEB
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A WEAKENING LOW CENTERED OVER THE Y-K DELTA WILL CONTINUE
DISSIPATING THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TODAY. GUSTY WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT ALONG THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A FRONT EXTENDING OFF A KAMCHATKA LOW EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE BERING SEA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH IT, THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND CORRIDORS OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT QUICKLY
WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY
LATE THIS WEEK, A POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT MAY LEAD TO MORE
SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
KM
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY)...
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MOST AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. A BERING LOW
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ISLANDS, ENDING BEFORE
SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE CENTER OF THE GULF. A WEAK
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL BRING SHOWERS TO SOUTHCENTRAL AND
KODIAK ISLAND. BREAKS IN CLOUDS COULD EMERGE AT TIMES. THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SUNDAY, THE TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE IN
THE GULF AND MOVE SOUTH WHICH WOULD END PRECIPITATION FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF SHORE CONTINUING TO BRING
SHOWERS FOR KODIAK ISLAND. A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS ENDING SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA IMPROVING CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS MODEL
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR WARMER
WEATHER.
-SS
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
CEILINGS REMAINING ABOVE 5,000 FT. SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS OUT OF THE
TURNAGAIN ARM WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING, CAUSING SURFACE
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. BY APPROXIMATELY MID
AFTERNOON, TURNAGAIN WINDS WILL REESTABLISH, WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KTS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE MORNING TOMORROW.
-CW
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