579
FXAK68 PAFC 280012
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
412 PM AKDT WED MAY 27 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A COASTAL RIDGE PROMOTING THE CONTINUATION OF GAP WINDS
THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM, KNIK RIVER VALLEY, AND OTHER FAVORED
LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, AND WILL GRADUALLY EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND A
NEW LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF.
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS A MORE SEASONABLE SHIFT
IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH A LOW OVER THE GULF, A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORT- WAVE
TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AND WILL ROTATE
WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. THUS, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND EXPANDING INTO THE
SUSITNA VALLEY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE EXACT LOCATION FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THIS PATTERN AS SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN,
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
STEADY LIGHT RAIN SOUTHWARD TO VALDEZ AND CORDOVA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKELY. BY FRIDAY, THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD FARTHER WEST FROM THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TO OVER THE
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. ELSEWHERE SHOULD
EXPECT TO SEE MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES, SOME SUNSHINE, AND DAILY SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
A SURFACE LOW NORTH OF GOODNEWS BAY AND A LOW SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK
ISLAND CONTINUE TO BRING WAVES OF MOISTURE TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGE SHOWS WIDESPREAD OVERCAST TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. RADAR RETURNS COMBINED WITH REPORTED SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE
MAINLAND THE PAST TWELVE-HOURS ENDING AT 3:00 PM TODAY. THESE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING DESPITE
THE GOODNEWS BAY LOW DISSIPATING AND THE KODIAK LOW MOVING FURTHER
SOUTH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. TOMORROW AND FRIDAY, WAVES OF
MOISTURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BRING CONTINUED
RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS WEAK RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TOO DURING THIS TIME.
A DEEP NW-SE ORIENTED TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ALEUTIANS
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR MULTIPLE LOWS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THESE LOWS WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS THROUGH THIS WEEK.
-DJ/KM
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY)...
EXPECT CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING GULF LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS TO SOUTHCENTRAL
WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND. HOWEVER, SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AS THE LOW
DISSIPATES.
NEXT WEEK, A SLIGHTLY MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPS. A
DIFFERENT GULF LOW WILL STAY OFF SHORE AND BRING SHOWERS FOR
KODIAK ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THE GULF LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ENDING
SHOWERS FOR KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY.
-SS
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
CEILINGS REMAINING ABOVE 5,000 FT. FOLLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS OUT OF
TURNAGAIN ARM WILL REDEVELOP FOR MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING. GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
-TM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page