893
FXAK68 PAFC 281250
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
450 AM AKDT THU MAY 28 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAKENING LOW IS NESTLED OVER GULF OF ALASKA
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROUND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND. NORTHERLY FLOW
FOR COOK INLET IS SHOWING SOME RADAR RETURNS IN PORTIONS OF THE
MAT-SU AND KACHEMAK BAY THIS MORNING, BUT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ARE DRY AND A LOT OF THE MOISTURE IS EVAPORATING BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE. SHOWERS FROM THIS LOW WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS
FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, BUT KODIAK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SHOWERY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH A LOW OVER THE GULF AND A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY, EASTERLY WAVES WILL ROTATE
WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. THUS, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND EXPANDING INTO THE
SUSITNA VALLEY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS. THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WITH THE EXACT LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION,
TYPICAL FOR ITS SHOWERY NATURE, ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND STEADY LIGHT RAIN SOUTHWARD TO VALDEZ
AND CORDOVA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT APPEARS LIKELY. BY FRIDAY, THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD FARTHER WEST FROM THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TO THE SUSITNA
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER ALASKA THIS WEEKEND,
AND THE WEATHER WILL OVERALL BE A LITTLE DRIER. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME INSTABILITY THOUGH. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS, THEY REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TO
SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES, SOME SUNSHINE, AND DAILY SEA BREEZES
ALONG THE COAST.
BE ON THE LOOK OUT NEXT WEEK FOR SUNNIER SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S APPEARING MORE PROBABLE FOR MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL. ONLY TIME WILL TELL, BUT IT SEEMS AS THOUGH SUMMER
REALLY IS AROUND THE CORNER!
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
THE PATTERN REMAINS MUCH THE SAME ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE
BERING SEA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN IN THE OVER THE WESTERN BERING, BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND
SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND ARES OF PATCHY FOG COVER MUCH OF THE
BERING SEA AND COASTAL SOUTHWEST ALASKA, INCLUDING BETHEL,
DILLINGHAM, AND KING SALMON, WHO HAVE SPENT MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SOCKED IN FOG. FOG IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
THIS MORNING UNTIL THE SUN IS ABLE BURN IT OFF. MULTIPLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER, THERE ARE
INCREASED CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY, AS WELL AS
ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AS THE ATMOSPHERE GROWS MORE
UNSTABLE. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50'S, AND INTO THE LOW 60'S FOR INLAND REGIONS, TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
KM
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY)...
EXPECT CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING GULF LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS TO SOUTHCENTRAL
WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AS THE LOW
DISSIPATES.
NEXT WEEK, A SLIGHTLY MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPS. A
DIFFERENT GULF LOW WILL STAY OFF SHORE AND BRING SHOWERS FOR
KODIAK ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THE GULF LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ENDING
SHOWERS FOR KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY.
-SS
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH CEILINGS REMAINING ABOVE
5,000 FT. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER COULD DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES WILL BE LOW. SOUTHERLY FLOW UP COOK INLET,
ALONG WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE, COULD LEAD TO A WESTERLY
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE SUNLIGHT FADES
LATER TONIGHT. A SOUTHEASTERLY TURNAGAIN ARM WIND COULD REDEVELOP
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS
RECENT DAYS.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page