649
FXAK68 PAFC 300040
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
440 PM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING)...
A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN, MINUS HOT TEMPERATURES, HAS SET IN OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WHILE WEAK RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER-LEVELS CONTINUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE. A
SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WAVES RIDING BETWEEN THE LOW AND WEAK
RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HELPED TO KICK OFF SOME
SHOWERS ALONG THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY. LIGHTNING
STRIKES CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS, BUT THE
OVERALL TREND FOR LIGHTNING HAS GONE DOWN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
A SIMILAR SETUP WITH MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FOR
SATURDAY WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES. A STRIKE OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY, AS WELL AS FROM MENTASTA LAKE TO
PAXSON DOWN TO LAKE LOUISE. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY WITH MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS, LIGHTNING
STRIKE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NONE WITH THIS ROUND OF
SHOWERS.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SENDS ITS FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GULF STARTING MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES UP REAL ESTATE ALONG THE UPPER
PAN HANDLE TO NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS TIGHT AND EXCEPTIONALLY
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SEND GUSTY EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS INTO KODIAK ISLAND MONDAY. SOME GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS
NORTHEASTERLY SUSTAINED STORM-FORCE WINDS BLOWING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN END OF SHELIKOF STRAIT. HOWEVER, THIS FORECAST PACKAGE,
WHILE THE GENERAL WIND FIELD MAGNITUDE WAS INCREASED, REFLECTS
HIGH-END GALE-FORCE THROUGH THE STRAIT. GALES ARE ALSO LIKELY IN
MARMOT AND CHINIAK BAYS MONDAY AS WELL.
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT, THERE WILL ALSO BE A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT FOR KODIAK ISLAND WHERE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL FROM
KODIAK AIRPORT TO KODIAK CITY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
ELEVATED AREAS WEST OF TOWN. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES
REGARDING THIS UNSEASONABLY STRONG SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AS DETAILS
WILL HOPEFULLY BECOME MORE CLEAR WITH TIME.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
SYNOPTICALLY, TROUGH MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM RUSSIA. THIS TROUGH, COUPLED WITH
WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVING FROM THE COPPER RIVER BASIN, WILL CAUSE
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. IN ITS WAKE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKENDED ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
AS OF 4:00 PM, SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION IS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM PORT ALSWORTH TO KOLIGANEK, THOUGH IT WILL REACH THE BRISTOL
BAY COASTLINE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE
REPORTED 0.02 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THESE SHOWERS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UP TO 0.20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THIS
AREA AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
A LOW SOUTH OF SAINT PAUL WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER
THE ALEUTIANS. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ALEUTIANS WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH TOMORROW AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ALEUTIANS.
-PA/DJ
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON MONDAY. DESPITE SOME
SMALL MODEL DISCREPANCIES, THE OVERALL PATTERN IS LARGELY AGREED
UPON, WITH A FRONT LIFTING INTO KODIAK ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL SPAN THE SOUTHERN GULF WESTWARD INTO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA, PERHAPS WITH KODIAK ISLAND TAKING THE BRUNT
OF THE STRONGER WINDS. GUSTS OF 40 TO AS HIGH AS 60 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE KODIAK ISLAND. OFFSHORE,
BUILDING SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA ARE FORECAST WHILE SEAS
OF 18 TO 25 FT ARE FORECAST FURTHER OFFSHORE.
OF LESS CERTAINTY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
TO NOSE ITS WAY INTO KODIAK ISLAND ON MONDAY. THE CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL TO FALL ON THE
UPSLOPE SIDE OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE ORIENTATION OF MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HIGHER
VERSUS LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. BY TUESDAY, LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD BACK INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC WHILE A
WEAKER WAVE OF ENERGY IS DISPATCHED FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING WITHOUT INCIDENT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
DOMINATE THE FORECAST. AS SUCH, EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS BOTH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WITH A
THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL COULD
BREACH 70 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS.
-BL
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL. THESE WINDS, ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT,
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A CEILING BETWEEN 3,500
AND 5,000 FT COULD DEVELOP, ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN,
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AND THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.
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