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FXAK68 PAFC 301243
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
443 AM AKDT SAT MAY 30 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH ANCHORAGE, THE MATSU, AND COPPER RIVER
BASIN OVERNIGHT AS NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
AND THE LOW OVER THE GULF IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. STABLE AIR IS
SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL FOR THIS WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY WHEN COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. A SIMILAR SETUP WHERE DIURNAL
SHOWERS WILL HANG AROUND FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND A STRIKE OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY, AS WELL AS FROM MENTASTA LAKE TO PAXSON
DOWN TO LAKE LOUISE. MORE STABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY WITH MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR POSSIBLE BUT LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE, AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF NEXT WEEK. ITS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF STARTING MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH A
SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SETS UP ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY
EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR KODIAK ISLAND
STARTING SUNDAY. WITH THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
COAST, SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL THROUGH
TERRAIN GAPS. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THESE WINDS TO ARRIVE SLIGHTLY
EARLIER, BUT GALES ARE APPEARING LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING FOR
MARMOT AND CHINIAK BAYS. SUSTAINED STORM-FORCE WINDS BLOWING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN END OF SHELIKOF STRAIT AND KODIAK ISLAND IS STILL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THAT IS LOW. IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT, THERE WILL ALSO BE AMPLE RAINFALL FOR
KODIAK ISLAND WHERE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL NEAR KODIAK
CITY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN ELEVATED AREAS WEST OF TOWN.
LOOKING TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL FOR NEXT WEEK, DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
BIG PICTURE WISE, STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED HIGH PRESSURE HAS
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NOW DEPARTING THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE PREVAILING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS ACTING AS A BLOCKADE TO PREVENT A KAMCHATKA FRONT
FROM PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO STALL AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM.
THERE ARE STILL SOME FOG AND LOW CEILINGS IN SOME AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING, BUT IS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE IN
COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MORNINGS. GUIDANCE IS MUCH LESS BULLISH FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING DUE TO A WEAKER LOW LEVEL INVERSION, THOUGH
AREAS TO THE SOUTH SUCH AS KING SALMON HAS BEEN LOCKED IN WITH
QUARTER TO HALF MILE FOG FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH A STRONGER
INVERSION. AS THE SURFACE SLOWLY WARMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS, THE INVERSION TRAPPING IN FOG FOR THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL BE MIXED OUT AND WILL ALLOW FOR IMPROVED VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS AFTER 18Z OR SO.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY, APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS OF SURFACE CAPE
AND STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE STRONGEST
INDICATORS OF THUNDERSTORMS LIES ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CROOKED
CREEK TO LIME VILLAGE, THOUGH SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD ALSO
DEVELOP ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS AND AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS
GOODNEWS BAY AND TWIN HILLS. WITH A SOUTHWEST STORM MOTION,
REMNANTS OF CONVECTION FROM THE CROOKED CREEK AND LIME VILLAGE
AREA WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON DOES NOT LOOK NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO THE INFLUX OF A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS, THOUGH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH A HEAVIER SHOWER.
THE BIGGER STORY FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS A STRONG GALE FORCE
FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND TOWARDS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT THE PICTURE IS
STARTING TO BECOME CLEARER AFTER LOOKING AT SOME OF THE OVERNIGHT
MODEL RUNS. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FASTEST (AND
UNSURPRISINGLY) THE STRONGEST SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS,
THOUGH THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE THAT HAS LAGGED BEHIND
THE GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND IS NOW FALLING MORE
IN LINE. ALL SAID, FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY, AND SUSTAINED GALES WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY EVENING JUST OFFSHORE
OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
-AM
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS AN WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON MONDAY. DESPITE
SOME SMALL MODEL DISCREPANCIES, THE OVERALL PATTERN IS LARGELY
AGREED UPON, WITH A FRONT LIFTING INTO KODIAK ISLAND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL SPAN THE SOUTHERN GULF WESTWARD
INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA, PERHAPS WITH KODIAK ISLAND TAKING THE
BRUNT OF THE STRONGER WINDS. GUSTS OF 40 TO AS HIGH AS 60 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE KODIAK ISLAND. OFFSHORE,
BUILDING SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA ARE FORECAST WHILE SEAS
OF 18 TO 25 FT ARE FORECAST FURTHER OFFSHORE.
OF LESS CERTAINTY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
TO NOSE ITS WAY INTO KODIAK ISLAND ON MONDAY. THE CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL TO FALL ON THE
UPSLOPE SIDE OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE ORIENTATION OF MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HIGHER
VERSUS LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. BY TUESDAY, LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD BACK INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC WHILE A
WEAKER WAVE OF ENERGY IS DISPATCHED FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING WITHOUT INCIDENT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
DOMINATE THE FORECAST. AS SUCH, EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS BOTH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WITH A
THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL COULD
BREACH 70 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS.
-BL
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS FROM TURNAGAIN ARM ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING. TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS BENDING INTO THE TERMINAL WILL LIKELY
RETURN TONIGHT AFTER 03Z AND BECOME STRONGER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
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