700
FXAK68 PAFC 310553
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
953 PM AKDT SAT MAY 30 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3/
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)...
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AS
THE WEAKENING GULF LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MORE STABLE AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA,
RESULTING IN FEWER SHOWERS AND A DECREASING THREAT FOR WETTING
RAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN, COVERAGE WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS THAN WHAT HAS
BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
REMAINS MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT POSSIBLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
THE LARGER WEATHER STORY SHIFTS TO THE GULF AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FAVORED
TERRAIN GAPS. GAP WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM, THE KNIK RIVER
VALLEY, AND COPPER RIVER DELTA WILL PICK BACK UP BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS, WHILE KODIAK ISLAND CAN EXPECT INCREASING
WINDS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN AS THE GULF SYSTEM APPROACHES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MARINE AREAS, INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF SHELIKOF STRAIT AND THE BARREN ISLANDS VICINITY, WHERE
GALE-FORCE WINDS APPEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
LOOKING TOWARDS MID WEEK, A BUILDING RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. AFTER WHAT HAS FELT LIKE ENDLESS DAYS OF CLOUDS,
SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, THE FORECAST WILL FINALLY SEE
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CLIMBING.
-LM/AS
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, A 1027 MB HIGH IN THE BERING SEA
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AS A TROUGH DROPS DOWN
FROM THE ARCTIC. IN THE NORTH PACIFIC, A 1000 MB NORTH PACIFIC
LOW STRENGTHENS TO 990 MB AND MOVES NORTHWARD ALLOWING ITS FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
CUMULUS CLOUDS BEGAN FORMING MID-MORNING ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM ANIAK
THROUGH LOWER KALSKAG WEST TO BETHEL DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS MOVED SOUTHWEST TOWARD BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ITS
PLACE, CONTINUED AND INCREASINGLY MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FORMED. THIS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS EVEN REACHING THE BRISTOL BAY COAST BEFORE
DISSIPATING. ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
TOMORROW AS A SECOND TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SIGNALS OF THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING FASTER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HAS BEEN NOTICED IN TODAY'S SATELLITE IMAGES.
THEREFORE, PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS FARTHER NORTHEAST THEN
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BUT IS INLINE WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT TO STORM WARNING WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
-JOHNSTON
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY)...
MONDAY'S GULF LOW SHOULD BE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD BACK INTO THE
NORTH PACIFIC BY TUESDAY. A REMNANT FRONT FROM THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE WESTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHILE STEADILY
DETERIORATING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE BERING AND
INTERIOR ALASKA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING. A NEW NORTH PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKS INTO
THE ALEUTIANS BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH RENEWED SHOWERS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM ADAK INTO COLD BAY AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
-BL
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WIND THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
BECOME MORE GUSTY LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.
THESE WINDS MAY DIMINISH FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE
COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS FROM LATE
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE
LIKELY OVER THE TERMINAL FROM AROUND NOON TO 10PM. AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER OVER OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page