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FXAK68 PAFC 211343
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
543 AM AKDT SUN JUN 21 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS HOVERING SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WHERE RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY TUESDAY MORNING.
ITS FRONT IS LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
SHOW LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH KENAI PENINSULA. THIS BAND IS
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. THE
RIDGE OVER THE GULF STRETCHING INTO THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL
GET PUSHED ALONG THE GULF COAST. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST GAP WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCLUDING THROUGH
TURNAGAIN ARM, KNIK RIVER, AND COPPER RIVER. TO THE WEST, A LOW IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA IS CONTINUING TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD
THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT IS SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THESE TWO
FEATURES ARE GOING TO INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN FOR MONDAY THE TWO LOWS
FORM A COMPLEX LOW. IT DOES SEEM THAT THERE IS REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT WAVE TO LIFT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND SOUTHCENTRAL LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE A LITTLE
MORE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE, BUT SHOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT THE COASTAL
AREAS DURING THIS TIME. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
COAST AS WELL, WILL MEAN GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MONDAY. THE
INTERACTION OF THESE TWO LOWS WILL ALLOW SOME MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
COMPLEX TO HEAD TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA WHERE BROAD TROUGHING
REMAINS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM WITH
THE TIMING AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN COMING FROM THE
PARENT LOW INTO SOUTHCENTRAL.
SHOWERS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL
BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND DENALI
HIGHWAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LESS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN AND A SERIES OF TROUGHS LIFT
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
THE LOW LOOKS TO SWING A TROUGH WELL INLAND TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE EXTENT INLAND AND THE TIMING OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INLAND AND AS IT
SLOWLY TRAVERSES EAST TO WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
LOW SPANNING FROM THE SOUTHERN BERING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH
TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND. FOR BRISTOL BAY, ALASKA PENINSULA, AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA, EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
TO ALSO LINGER. FOR ADAK/ATKA AND WEST, A FRONT WILL BRING
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 TO 35 KT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE IT STALLS AND DISSIPATES BY MONDAY NIGHT. NO
MAJOR HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE
AS SHORTWAVES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF ROBUST SURFACE HEATING,
OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE ENHANCED LIFT PROVIDED BY
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT (20% TO 30% CHANCE) THIS AFTERNOON IS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY FROM SLEETMUTE WESTWARD AND ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. AND AS WE'RE RIGHT ON THE CUSP OF THE SUMMER
SOLSTICE, LONG DAYS COULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUING
WELL INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GENERALLY EXPECT THE
FOOTPRINT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEK AS THE LOW LINGERING NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WILL LIKELY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS AND REDUCED SURFACE HEATING.
-JH/KC
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY)...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PERIODIC SHOWER ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL. THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE
ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND WINDWARD TERRAIN, THOUGH SCATTERED
INLAND SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS UNDER THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.
FARTHER WEST, A BERING SEA LOW WILL GRADUALLY TRACK EASTWARD
TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS, BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS TO THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN MAINLAND, IT WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO A MORE
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, ALLOWING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
SPREAD EASTWARD WHILE KEEPING GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN
PLACE.
MEANWHILE, A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL PROMOTE
COMPARATIVELY QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. HOWEVER, DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECEASES TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT OF THE
BERING LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES. DESPITE THESE
DIFFERENCES, CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER, SHOWERY, AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LM
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A TURNAGAIN ARM WIND WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAS A CHANCE OF PRODUCING GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY AROUND 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
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