062
FXAK68 PAFC 221313
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
513 AM AKDT MON JUN 22 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A COMPLEX LOW IS MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING,
PUSHING RAIN INTO KODIAK AND ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHCENTRAL.
SHORTWAVES FROM THE LOW ARE CREATING A COASTAL RIDGE OVER THE
CHUGACH RANGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
(10 TO 15 MPH, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH) IN PALMER, SOUTH
ANCHORAGE, AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND PORTIONS OF
THE SUSITNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
COAST WILL ALLOW FOR DOWNSLOPE DRYING ON THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAIN
RANGES, BUT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL HAVE A 20 TO 30% CHANCE
OF OCCURRING.
BY TUESDAY, A MORE ROBUST TROUGH FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL FROM EAST TO WEST AND REACHING WELL INTO COPPER RIVER
BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE A STEADIER
RAINFALL, WHICH WILL CAUSE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND,
NEAR THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND THE ALASKA RANGE. LOWER
ELEVATIONS INCLUDING ANCHORAGE WILL SEE LESS RAINFALL DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING, BUT THE SHEER AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MAKING IT IN WILL
ALLOW AT LEAST 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES OF RAIN TO FALL. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY INCLUDING TALKEETNA AND
SKWENTNA, WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL FALL
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BAND OF RAIN SETS UP. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES
WITH THIS EVENT AND IF THE RAIN BAND SETS UP FURTHER WEST, THE
LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WILL BE SEEN, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF TALKEETNA. CONVERSELY, IF THE RAIN BAND SETS UP FURTHER EAST,
THEN THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE WILL BE MORE LIKELY. BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING, RAINFALL WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE LOW MOVES
MORE TO THE EAST AND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE INLAND DISSIPATES.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH, BUT RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM WILL BE LIGHTER.
-JAR/RUX
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
GENERALLY A TREND TOWARDS MORE UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE WEATHER AS
LOWS PROGRESS INTO THE REGION AND THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA
WEAKENS AND GETS DISPLACED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
KEEP A FOOTHOLD ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER AND DELTA AND ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE, THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LESS WIDESPREAD
AS THE WEEK GOES ON. FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO BRISK WINDS AND STEADY
RAIN AS LOWS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE ELONGATING AND WEAKENING
FRONT STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WHILE PATCHY FOG
SPREADS ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA FOLLOWING THE DISSIPATION OF
REMAINING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE LOW PROGRESSING NORTHWARDS INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER
INFLUENCE FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM SENDS SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM RIVER CORRIDOR. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON
ONCE AGAIN WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER, MODEL SPREAD ON THE TIMING AND
EXACT PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION
CONTINUES TO KEEP OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION FAIRLY LOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
FOR THESE WAVES TO COINCIDE WITH POCKETS OF CLEARER SKY AND WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER CORRIDOR AND
OUT OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY. AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE
GULF CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS STORMS
INITIATE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE, THE FRONT OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA DISSIPATES
THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND AN
UPTICK IN WINDS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY)...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PERIODIC
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND WINDWARD TERRAIN,
THOUGH SCATTERED INLAND SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS UNDER THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.
FARTHER WEST, A BERING SEA LOW WILL GRADUALLY TRACK EASTWARD
TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS, BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS TO THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN MAINLAND, IT WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO A MORE
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, ALLOWING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
SPREAD EASTWARD WHILE KEEPING GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN
PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL PROMOTE
COMPARATIVELY QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. HOWEVER, DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD
AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT OF THE
BERING LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES. DESPITE THESE
DIFFERENCES, CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA WILL STAY COOLER, SHOWERY, AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH SUNDAY.
LM
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, WITH CEILINGS
DIPPING BELOW 5,000 FT AT TIMES. A TURNAGAIN ARM WIND WILL
RESTRENGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HAS A CHANCE OF PRODUCING
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY AROUND 09Z TUESDAY
MORNING.
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