028
FXAK68 PAFC 231350
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
550 AM AKDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A WEAKENING LOW NEAR KODIAK REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY AS IT
CONTINUES DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH MORE ROBUST TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN, AS WELL AS ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE PROMINENT WITH THE PASSING OF THE WAVES
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH LIGHTER RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY. SKWENTNA, TALKEETNA/TRAPPER CREEK
AND NORTH THROUGH BROAD PASS UP TO CANTWELL WILL SEE BETWEEN 1 AND
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL PROMOTE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND, NEAR THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND
THE ALASKA RANGE. LOWER ELEVATIONS (INCLUDING ANCHORAGE) WILL SEE
LESS RAINFALL DUE TO DOWNSLOPING, BUT THE SHEER AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
MAKING IT IN WILL ALLOW AT LEAST 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES OF RAIN TO
FALL. CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON BELOW 30%
FOR MUCH OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND NORTH GULF COAST, THOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE KENAI MOUNTAINS NORTH
TO WHITTIER THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS CARRY OVER INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES ISOLATED TO THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS.
THURSDAY WILL SEE MOISTURE MOVE BACK INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.
THIS, COMBINED WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY WAVES WILL ALLOW CHANCES
(50 TO 60%) FOR SHOWERS.
KM/JR
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE NORTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA AS MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW ANCHORED IN THE
WESTERN GULF. BY THIS AFTERNOON, ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST, THOUGH THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW IN THE GULF ON CLOUD
COVER AND TIMING/PLACEMENT OF WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR. THE OTHER MAJOR AREA OF
IMPACT WILL BE RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AS A
PARTICULARLY ROBUST AND WET TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE AREA
FROM LIME VILLAGE TO ILIAMNA HAS A 40-50% CHANCE OF SEEING 0.5
INCHES OF RAIN OR GREATER FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH NEAR-CERTAIN LIKELIHOOD OVER THE ALASKA RANGE.
STILL, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHIFTS IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE, WHICH WILL AFFECT OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN ALASKA
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA, WITH
MODELS CURRENTLY FAVORING THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY FOR THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
FARTHER WEST, A COMPLEX LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC LIFTS NORTH
TODAY AND ENTERS THE SOUTHERN BERING ON WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY
EXPECT STEADY RAIN ALONG THE ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
AND FOR THE PRIBILOFS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AS HIGH AS 20-35 KT. HOW THESE TWO SURFACE LOWS INTERACT AND MERGE
WILL AFFECT THE TIMING, DURATION, AND INTENSITY OF WINDS AND RAIN
ALONG THE FRONT. FORTUNATELY, THIS LOW COMPLEX LOOKS FAIRLY
MIDDLING IN TERMS OF STRENGTH, SO IT'LL BE MORE LIKELY TO BE A
NUISANCE STORM THAN AN OVERLY IMPACTFUL ONE.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE LONG-TERM PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING
SEA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS, EASTERN ALEUTIANS, AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA
(AKPEN) FOR SUNDAY. A RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
LIKELY LOW STRATUS AND MISTY CONDITIONS FILLING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY. THIS RIDGE AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW STRATUS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE REST OF THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHERN AKPEN WHILE THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING WILL
CONTEND WITH NORTH PACIFIC FRONTS.
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL ALSO REMAIN UNSETTLED AS A
SERIES OF EASTERLY WAVES MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND FROM
YUKON, CANADA AND SHORTWAVES LIFT FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC, THE THE
GULF OF ALASKA, AND OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. MOST STEADY
PRECIPITATION WITH THESE DISTURBANCES BETWEEN FRIDAY AND MONDAY
WILL LOOK TO FALL ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE ONE
CHALLENGE WITH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST, WITH REGARDS TO THE
INTERIOR LOCATIONS, WILL BE ASSESSING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE. THIS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF A THREAT LIGHTNING
STRIKES COULD BECOME. RIGHT NOW, FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST UNSTABLE DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. A GULF LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG TERRAIN TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS REACHING UP TO 25
KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGE:
WETTING RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
DISCUSSION:
A STRONG EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD WETTING RAINS
BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE
AIRMASS THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OVER WILL BE
STABLE, SO LIGHTNING SHOULD BE LITTLE THREAT. STEADY WETTING RAINS
WILL MOVE TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. WETTING
RAINS THEN SHIFT TO INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
TO TUESDAY EVENING WITH AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AS
WELL AS PORT ALSWORTH AND NORTHWARD SEEING STEADY RAIN. THIS
STEADY RAIN WILL LAST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL LAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. SOUTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE, NOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WILL ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE TO BE RUNG OUT
ACROSS THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE WETTING RAIN FOR THAT
AREA.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page