110
FXAK68 PAFC 241259
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
459 AM AKDT WED JUN 24 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND WESTERN
SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY LATE
MORNING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN ON THE DRIER
SIDE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS IN THE EASTERN
COPPER BASIN, WHO WILL SEE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE 60'S AND
UPPER 50'S ALONG THE COAST. A SERIES OF EASTERLY WAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PULLING WARMER AIR
FROM INTERIOR CANADA AND BRINGING A WARMING TREND TO THE MAINLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70'S FOR INLAND AREAS ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL REACH INTO THE
MID-70'S WITH UPPER 60'S TO LOW 70'S FOR COASTAL AREAS, INCLUDING
ANCHORAGE. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SUSITNA
VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN FOR FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE OR LESS THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY ARISES AND THE COVERAGE OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
KM/JAR
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3/TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE, WETTING RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE THROUGH MID-MORNING LEADING TO RISING WATER
LEVELS ALONG THE STONY RIVER AND OTHER TRIBUTARIES FLOWING OUT OF
THE ALASKA RANGE. RAINFALL INTENSITY DECREASES BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION PUSHES SOUTH INTO BRISTOL BAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE STALLS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE LOW IN
THE GULF BEGINS TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND
AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE KUSKOKWIM
MOUNTAINS NORTH AND WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE Y-K DELTA. EXPECT
AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR THESE AREAS, WITH A REPEAT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE INLAND, STORM MOTION WILL STEER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST.
FOR FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN THE BERING SEA WILL APPROACH SOUTHWEST AK.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST. THE POSITION OF THIS IS HARD TO
PINPOINT RIGHT NOW.
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TRACKS NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN BERING BY TONIGHT AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. WHILE THE LOW WILL NOT GET MUCH
STRONGER, A SERIES OF SHORT- WAVES WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN BERING THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
RAIN, HEAVIEST FROM AROUND NIKOLSKI TO UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR. ALSO
EXPECT SOME GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT IN AREAS NOT
IMPACTED BY THE STRONGER WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
-SEB/JH
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE LONG-TERM PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED ACROSS THE
BERING SEA, ALEUTIAN CHAIN, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A
LOW IN THE BERING SEA SPREADS SHOWERS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TO
THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
ALSO BRINGS SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES LIFT
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY; NAMELY THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA
VALLEY. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY
TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN MORE ROBUST SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. THERE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA LOOKS TO BE MORE
STABLE THAN THAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL, THEREFORE,
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE LESS OF A THREAT THERE.
FOR MONDAY, THE BERING LOW THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE BERING
SEA, ALEUTIANS, AND MAINLAND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
NOW SENDS IT ENERGY INTO SOUTHCENTRAL BY MONDAY EVENING.
THEREFORE, EXPECT SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
BACK TO THE WEST, A STRONGER NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND FRONT PUSH
SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS WITH STORM-FORCE GUSTS
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING BY MONDAY MORNING.
ALSO ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT
TIMES. RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS MOVE TO ADAK/ATKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND TO UNALASKA/NIKOLSKI BY TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY LATE MORNING.
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