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FXAK68 PAFC 250037
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
437 PM AKDT WED JUN 24 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
SKIES IN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA ARE CLEARING AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE
GULF CONTINUES ITS SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD. LOW TEMPERATURES
LAST NIGHT DROPPED TO THE 30S IN EAST ANCHORAGE AND THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH ALLOWED FOR MORE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS DRY SLOT HAS MOVED OUT, SO LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH TONIGHT AND WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S.
A SERIES OF EASTERLY WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, PULLING WARMER AIR FROM INTERIOR CANADA AND
BRINGING A WARMING TREND TO THE MAINLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW 70'S FOR INLAND AREAS ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY,
TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL REACH INTO THE MID-70'S WITH UPPER 60'S
TO LOW 70'S FOR COASTAL AREAS, INCLUDING ANCHORAGE. WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED
CONVECTION FOR INLAND AREAS. BY THURSDAY, SHOWERS AND A 10 TO 20%
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND
THE ISABEL AND MENTASTA PASS AREAS WILL ARISE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (10 TO 20%) EXTEND TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY BY
FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DECREASES OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WESTERLY WAVES FROM A LOW IN THE BERING BRING IN COOLER AIR. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WINDS
AROUND KODIAK ISLAND WILL INCREASE (20 TO 25 MPH) BY SATURDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE WESTERLY WAVES.
KM/JAR
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3/TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUE TO
EXTEND ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND YUKON-KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG A CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM
NEAR BETHEL AND KASIGLUK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH ANIAK AND TOWARD
HOLY CROSS. STORM MOTIONS WILL GENERALLY CARRY ACTIVITY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY FRIDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE BERING SEA WILL APPROACH SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHERE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER REGARDING THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION, PORTIONS OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA, LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY COULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN A SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND.
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS, A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW
REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN BERING. LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST
AHEAD OF THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS (DUTCH HARBOR AND UNALASKA) AND SOUTHERN
BERING WATERS. THROUGH FRIDAY, THE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS WHILE
SHIFTING FARTHER NORTH, THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER WIND CORRIDORS, AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS
AND FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BERING THURSDAY MORNING.
LM
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE BROAD
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON SUNDAY, INCREASING MOISTURE AND SEVERAL WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR, INCLUDING THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY. MODEST DAYTIME HEATING MAY
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
PORTIONS OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY APPEARS MOST
FAVORABLE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL, CLOUD COVER AND COOLER
MARINE INFLUENCES SHOULD HELP LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
BY MONDAY, ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA LOW BEGINS
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. AS A RESULT, SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE KENAI PENINSULA, SUSITNA VALLEY, COPPER RIVER BASIN, AND
SURROUNDING HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK
LIGHT TO MODERATE, LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS.
SHOWERY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS, THOUGH PERSIST CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION MAY KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCE MORE FREQUENT RAINFALL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
BY WEDNESDAY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA MAY BEGIN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS COULD LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING AND
IMPACTS REMAINS LOWER THIS FAR OUT, BUT THE OVERALL SIGNAL FAVORS
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN, EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER, AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THROUGH FAVORED
GAP WIND LOCATIONS AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF.
FATHER WEST, A STRONGER NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
AND WESTERN BERING EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY GALE-
FORCE WINDS WITH STORM-FORCE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE, ACCOMPANIED BY
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN, REACHING ADAK AND
ATKA MONDAY BEFORE ADVANCING TOWARD UNALASKA AND NIKOLSKI BY
TUESDAY. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE MONITORING LATER
FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IMPACTFUL WINDS AND
RAINFALL REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH.
LM
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PERSIST. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
LOWER CLOUD DECK TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
HOURS TOMORROW. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN IT COULD PUSH CEILINGS INTO THE
MVFR RANGE. ANY LOWER CEILINGS FROM THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING AS THIS IS NOT DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS
THROUGHOUT COOK INLET, BUT RATHER FROM RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOCALLY THAT CONDENSES AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION AT 10 KT OR
LESS.
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