658
FXAK68 PAFC 260025
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
425 PM AKDT THU JUN 25 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING)...
CURRENTLY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
ALASKA, WITH EASTERLY SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. WARMER AIR PULLED IN FROM INTERIOR CANADA WILL RAISE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND UPPER 60S FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL AND WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA MAY REACH THE LOW 70S TOMORROW,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER AN
OVERNIGHT LULL, MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS SKIES
CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WARM. THE STRONGEST DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW. COUPLED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEES A BETTER CHANCE (50-60%) FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (10%-30% CHANCE) TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY. ALONG THE COAST,
MORE SHOWERY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO WEST TOMORROW,
STARTING IN CORDOVA EARLY IN THE MORNING THEN REACHING THE WESTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND ON SATURDAY, INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL
LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS WEEKEND. AS
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND SHOWERY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, PLACES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG
THE ALASKA RANGE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF PERSISTENT RAIN. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND WILL FALL ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE, WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN FRIDAYS CONVECTIVE
EPISODE.
PA
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING LOWS OVER THE BERING SEA AND
GULF OF ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE A RIDGE OVER THE YUKON-KUSKOKWIM DELTA WEAKENS. THIS
TRANSITION WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND AND A MOVE AWAY FROM
THE RECENT SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN.
BEFORE WE CAN MOVE AWAY FROM THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN, THIS
AFTERNOON, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINES WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY. OVERALL,
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INLAND
VALLEYS BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
ON FRIDAY, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA,
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND ADJACENT HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE
GRADUALLY EXPANDING AND DRIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. AS
STORMS MATURE, THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING
THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER
AREA OF PRECIPITATION BEFORE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENS FRIDAY
NIGHT.
BY SATURDAY, THE BERING SEA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST, POSSIBLY SPREADING A BROADER
AREA OF RAIN INLAND WHILE REINFORCING A COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS BRISTOL BAY, WITH
THE STEADIEST RAINFALL FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES ONSHORE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE APPROACHING
LOW SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERY, COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES
INLAND.
LM
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY)...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE BERING TO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. DISTURBANCES TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE KENAI PENINSULA, CHUGACH MOUNTAINS, SUSITNA VALLEY, COPPER
RIVER BASIN AND HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THOSE AREAS. ONE OF THE
FORECAST CHALLENGES, ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WILL BE
JUST HOW MUCH THE AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WITH RESPECT TO THE LIGHTNING STRIKE THREAT. ON
TUESDAY, THIS LOW MOVES TO THE INTERIOR. CONDITIONS ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL, WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE,
THOUGH AREAS SEEING PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER.
OUT WEST, A DIFFERENT SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND WIDESPREAD
SOUTHEASTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS, WITH STORM-FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING AND OCCLUDES, A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN, REACHING THE AKPEN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL-CRAFT TO
GALE-FORCE WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
CHAIN WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT WEAKENS AS IT CONTINUES EAST THE BRISTOL BAY COAST AND
KODIAK ISLAND. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WHAT CONDITIONS
TO EXPECT, CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT AS MODELS DIVERGE.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES MAINLAND ALASKA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, CLOUD
COVER INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE. MODELS
CURRENTLY DISAGREE ON WHETHER PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO DISAGREE WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THESE DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
PA
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST. RAIN SHOWERS
COULD MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
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