836
FXAK68 PAFC 261301
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
501 AM AKDT FRI JUN 26 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A SERIES OF EASTERLY SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST TO
WEST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WARMER AIR PULLED IN FROM CANADA WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70'S TODAY FOR INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 60'S ALONG
COASTAL AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. HIGHER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY AT
50-60% FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A 10-30% CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. ALONG THE COAST,
MORE SHOWERY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO WEST TODAY,
STARTING IN CORDOVA EARLY IN THE MORNING THEN REACHING THE
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND ON SATURDAY, INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL
LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS WEEKEND. AS
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND SHOWERY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, PLACES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG
THE ALASKA RANGE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF PERSISTENT RAIN.
ADDITIONALLY, THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND WILL FALL
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE, WITH UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, THOUGH STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS
THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY.
KM/PA
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING LOWS OVER THE BERING SEA AND
GULF OF ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE A RIDGE OVER THE YUKON-KUSKOKWIM DELTA WEAKENS. THIS
TRANSITION WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND AND A MOVE AWAY FROM
THE RECENT SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN.
TODAY, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA,
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THERE
CONTINUE TO BE TIMING AND POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS WAVE,
AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A LATER
ARRIVAL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL, CLEAR
SKIES UNDER THE LINGERING RIDGE AND THE RESULTING SURFACE HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INITIATE
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FIRST DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
ADJACENT HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE GRADUALLY EXPANDING AND DRIFTING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. AS STORMS MATURE, THEY ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF PRECIPITATION BEFORE ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY WEAKENS FRIDAY NIGHT.
BY SATURDAY, THE BERING SEA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST, REINFORCING A COOLER AND MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ENOUGH THAT NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, GENERALLY SHOWERY AND
BREEZY AROUND THE WEAKENING LOW THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, THE
FRONT OF A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING WINDS TO GALE FORCE AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY STEADY RAIN TO THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN.
LM/KC
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY)...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE BERING TO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. DISTURBANCES TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE KENAI PENINSULA, CHUGACH MOUNTAINS, SUSITNA VALLEY, COPPER
RIVER BASIN AND HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THOSE AREAS. ONE OF THE
FORECAST CHALLENGES, ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WILL BE
JUST HOW MUCH THE AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WITH RESPECT TO THE LIGHTNING STRIKE THREAT. ON
TUESDAY, THIS LOW MOVES TO THE INTERIOR. CONDITIONS ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL, WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE,
THOUGH AREAS SEEING PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER.
OUT WEST, A DIFFERENT SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND WIDESPREAD
SOUTHEASTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS, WITH STORM-FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING AND OCCLUDES, A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN, REACHING THE AKPEN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL-CRAFT TO
GALE-FORCE WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
CHAIN WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT WEAKENS AS IT CONTINUES EAST THE BRISTOL BAY COAST AND
KODIAK ISLAND. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WHAT CONDITIONS
TO EXPECT, CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT AS MODELS DIVERGE.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES MAINLAND ALASKA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, CLOUD
COVER INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE. MODELS
CURRENTLY DISAGREE ON WHETHER PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO DISAGREE WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THESE DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
PA
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TODAY, THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO DRIFT OVER THE TERMINAL, WITH
BRIEF DIPS INTO MVFR POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
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