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FXAK68 PAFC 262355
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
355 PM AKDT FRI JUN 26 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING)...
A SERIES OF EASTERLY SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST TO
WEST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WARMER AIR PULLED IN FROM CANADA WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70'S TODAY FOR INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 60'S ALONG
COASTAL AREAS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. HIGHER CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY AT 30-50% FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A 10-30% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. ALONG THE COAST, MORE SHOWERY RAINFALL,
WHICH STARTED IN CORDOVA THIS MORNING, IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. CURRENTLY,
MOST OF THE RAIN IS LOCATED IN WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT OVER THE MOUNTAIN RANGES AND SPILL
INTO ANCHORAGE, THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AS WELL AS THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND ON SATURDAY, INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL
LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS WEEKEND. AS
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WHILE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND SHOWERY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION, PLACES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF PERSISTENT RAIN.
ADDITIONALLY, THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND WILL FALL
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE, WITH UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, THOUGH STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT IS
EXPECTED TODAY. SHOWERY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FOR MONDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE
EASTERN BERING SEA MOVES INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH
SHORTWAVES LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING LOWS OVER THE BERING SEA AND GULF
OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE YUKON-KUSKOKWIM DELTA WEAKENS.
THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND AND A DEPARTURE
FROM THE RECENT SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN AS INCREASING
MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AHEAD OF AN EASTERLY
WAVE.
THIS AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE AS DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE STORMS
EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE MIDDLE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, INCLUDING AREAS AROUND LIME VILLAGE, SLEETMUTE
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE EASTERLY WAVE, THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL, ALLOWING CONVECTION TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
BEFORE BROADER AREAS OF SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING EAST TO
WEST.
BY SATURDAY, THE BERING SEA LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER, COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AND PERIODIC SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WHILE SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITING DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONG BERING SEA LOW APPROACHES THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS INCLUDING SHEMYA, AMCHITKA AND ADAK, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MAY SUPPORT INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE, SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LM
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7/TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY PROGRESSIVE, WITH
ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING FROM THE BERING SEA TO MAINLAND
ALASKA. THIS GENERAL PATTERN TENDS TO BE COOLER, CLOUDIER, AND
WETTER THAN NORMAL. NOTHING LOOKS EXTREME FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
ESPECIALLY FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. LOOKING AT THE
DETAILS, A LARGE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE BERING SEA ON
TUESDAY WILL QUICKLY TRACK TO WESTERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL, A NEW LOW WILL FORM IN
THE GULF THURSDAY AND EXIT EASTWARD FRIDAY, WITH A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND OVER SOUTHERN AK AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE 4TH OF JULY
WEEKEND. THE ONE THING TO WATCH WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL
"EASTERLY WAVES" TO AFFECT SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE GULF LOW EXITS,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL INTO THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.
A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC TO THE ALEUTIANS
THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN WEAKEN OVER THE BERING SEA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH
IMPACT ON SOUTHERN ALASKA FROM THIS SYSTEM. WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS ALWAYS FAIRLY LOW A WEEK OR MORE OUT IN TIME, AT THIS POINT
NONE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES
FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. INSTEAD, IT LOOKS SEASONABLE WITH A
CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. STAY TUNED.
-SEB
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO DRIFT OVER
THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH BRIEF DIPS INTO MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
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