047
FXAK68 PAFC 271154
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
354 AM AKDT SAT JUN 27 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TODAY ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE IN THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY
NORTHERN COPPER BASIN ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. COOLER AIR MOVES IN
WITH AN UPCOMING TROUGH MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA,
BRINGING TEMPERATURES INTO A MORE SEASONALLY NORMAL RANGE. LIGHT
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE TROUGH
ON MONDAY.
KM
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
GENERALLY EXPECT CLOUDIER, COOLER, AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS AS A
BERING SEA LOW BECOMES THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE AND DISPLACES
THE RIDGE THAT HAD BROUGHT MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER TO THE
MAINLAND. THIS WILL LIKELY SPELL THE END (AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS) OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THOUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY PICK UP SOME LIGHT RAIN AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. FOR THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, EXPECT WINDS UP TO ABOUT 20-30 KT AROUND THE
WEAKENING BERING SEA LOW. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONG BERING SEA
LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS INCLUDING SHEMYA, AMCHITKA
AND ADAK, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GALES ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7/TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY PROGRESSIVE, WITH
ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING FROM THE BERING SEA TO MAINLAND
ALASKA. THIS GENERAL PATTERN TENDS TO BE COOLER, CLOUDIER, AND
WETTER THAN NORMAL. NOTHING LOOKS EXTREME FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
ESPECIALLY FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. LOOKING AT THE
DETAILS, A LARGE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE BERING SEA ON
TUESDAY WILL QUICKLY TRACK TO WESTERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL, A NEW LOW WILL FORM IN
THE GULF THURSDAY AND EXIT EASTWARD FRIDAY, WITH A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND OVER SOUTHERN AK AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE 4TH OF JULY
WEEKEND. THE ONE THING TO WATCH WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL
"EASTERLY WAVES" TO AFFECT SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE GULF LOW EXITS,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL INTO THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.
A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC TO THE ALEUTIANS
THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN WEAKEN OVER THE BERING SEA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH
IMPACT ON SOUTHERN ALASKA FROM THIS SYSTEM. WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS ALWAYS FAIRLY LOW A WEEK OR MORE OUT IN TIME, AT THIS POINT
NONE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES
FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. INSTEAD, IT LOOKS SEASONABLE WITH A
CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. STAY TUNED.
-SEB
AVIATION
PANC...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER 16Z. WINDS WILL FLIP TO WESTERLY
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AGAIN AFTER 04Z
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. EXPECT VICINITY SHOWERS
PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
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