007
FXAK68 PAFC 150201 CCA
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
427 PM AKDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
** WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTH ANCHORAGE, THE ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE AND
TURNAGAIN ARM. **
** FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YENTNA RIVER **
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHORT-
LIVED DRY PERIODS TO THE REGION. STEADY RAINFALL, MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES, HAS PERSISTED SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM 0.05" IN THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA TO 0.27" IN THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREAS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
KENAI PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO, EVENTUALLY, COPPER RIVER VALLEY. IN ITS
WAKE, SCATTERED SHOWERS THEN DRYER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, RAIN CONTINUES
IN THE MAT- SU VALLEYS, PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND COPPER RIVER
BASIN THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR GAP WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS. WINDS COMING OUT OF THE TURNAGAIN ARM WILL AT TIMES
BEND INTO ANCHORAGE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSHING INTO THE SOUND
WILL ALSO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE
RECENT RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN ISSUING A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
YENTNA RIVER. TOMORROW'S SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAINFALL TO SOUTHCENTRAL
THURSDAY.
-JOHNSTON
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
DISCUSSION:
A COMPLEX LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT CONTINUES TO SEND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE BERING SEA BEFORE ROTATING UP INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAINLAND. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS HAS BROUGHT, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING, PERIODS OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE ALEUTIANS, AKPEN, AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE HAS BEEN FUNNELED UP INTO THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES ABOVE
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 48 HRS HAVE
RANGED FROM 0.2-0.4" ALONG THE AKPEN AND 0.5-1" FROM WESTERN BRISTOL
BAY TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WITH LESS THAN 0.25" FOR MOST OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THIS COOL AND WET TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT FEW SHORTWAVES IMPACT THE REGION.
FOR TONIGHT, RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND WILL GRADUALLY
WIND DOWN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OF BRISTOL BAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND BRISTOL BAY, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM, WILL DECREASE BY LATE TONIGHT. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE A BRIEF
RESPITE FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SPEAKING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM... IT IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE
OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN KAMCHATKA AND WILL SWING ACROSS THE BERING
SEA WEDNESDAY. A SWATH OF RAIN WILL WORK ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
ISLAND'S FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE NORTH
PACIFIC/GULF SIDE OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL WORK UP TOWARDS
BRISTOL BAY BY THURSDAY AND WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE AKPEN, BRISTOL BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA.
- PP
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY)...
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG CONFIDENCE IN A SLOW-
MOVING, HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONSOLIDATING ALONG
165TH PARALLEL AND LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA WELL INTO NEXT
WORKWEEK. SMALLER-SCALE DETAILS ARE LESS CERTAIN, ESPECIALLY WITH
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA, WHERE MODERATE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND NORTHERN GULF. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS
AND EXTENDED UNSETTLED STRETCH WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCE REGION WIDE
THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE WIDESPREAD, ORGANIZED AND
WINDIER FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD. A
MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR THOSE
AREAS NEXT WEEK.
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS, PARTICULARLY THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SOUTHERN BERING SEA, STRENGTHENING SYSTEMS CARRY THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING WINDS AND ROUGHER SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CREATE HAZARDOUS MARINE ENVIRONMENT FOR BOATING, COMMERCIAL
FISHING AND VESSEL OPERATIONS, WITH HEAVIER SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. OVERALL, THE WETTER AND WINDIER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND COASTAL ALASKA WILL REQUIRE ATTENTION TO ACCUMULATING RAINFALL
IMPACTS AND MARINE HAZARDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-DD
AVIATION
PANC...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, THEN EVENTUALLY
LET UP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST PUSHES PAST THE TERMINAL. SOUTHEAST WINDS
THAT HAVE MOSTLY BEEN STAYING TO THE SOUTH WILL BRIEFLY BEND INTO
TOWN THIS EVENING, WITH A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE. ANY LINGERING THREAT FOR LLWS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH
LATER THIS EVENING, BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS COULD ALSO LOWER INTO
MVFR RANGE ONCE WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
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