410
FXAK68 PAFC 151322
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
522 AM AKDT WED JUL 15 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
THE BACK HALF OF THE STORM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAINS AND WIND
TO THE REGION WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 18 HOURS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN
AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE FOR THE KENAI PENINSULA AND MAYBE AS FAR
NORTH AS ANCHORAGE AND THE SOUTHERN MAT-SU VALLEYS. WINDS WILL
PERSIST HOWEVER AS THE LOW PRESSURE DRIVES INLAND INTO THE
INTERIOR.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING TO OVER OR SOUTH OF
THE KENAI PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN THAT WILL SWEEP SLOWLY WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES.
WHILE GAP WINDS WILL LIKELY COME INTO SOME AREAS, THE FARTHER
SOUTH LOW TRACK WILL LEAD TO WEAKER WINDS THAN OBSERVED YESTERDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL DICTATE
RAINFALL TIMING FOR THE COPPER BASIN.
FOR THE WEEKEND, YET ANOTHER LOW WILL ROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH, AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AND LEADING TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A COMPLEX LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT CONTINUES TO SEND A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE BERING SEA BEFORE ROTATING UP
INTO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAINLAND. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS HAS
BROUGHT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING, PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE ALEUTIANS, AKPEN, AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE HAS BEEN FUNNELED UP INTO THE REGION
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MEAN. THIS COOL AND WET TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT FEW SHORTWAVES IMPACT THE REGION.
RAINFALL IS TAPERING OFF OVER THE MAINLAND AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVES EASTWARD. THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS A RESULT. WIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
OVERLAND THROUGH THE DAY AND REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOT FAR AWAY, AND IS
ALREADY OVER THE ADAK AND ATKA REGION. THE LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS TODAY, BRINGING RAIN AND ELEVATED WINDS AS
IT TRAVELS. BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AKPEN
AND THEN INTO BRISTOL BAY BY THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN, WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAINLAND. RAINFALL WILL PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
FOR THE BERING, A LOW WILL DROP FROM CHUKOTKA ON THURSDAY, LEADING
TO GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN MORE RAINFALL OVER THE ALEUTIANS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS LOW IS TRENDING STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY,
SO WIND SPEEDS AND RAINFALL ARE HAVING AN UPWARD TREND IN
INTENSITY. LOOKING A BIT AHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, IT IS LIKELY THAT
THIS LOW WILL TAKE THE SAME TRACK AS THE OTHERS AND DRIVE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
-PP/JAR
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY)...
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG CONFIDENCE IN A SLOW-
MOVING, HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONSOLIDATING ALONG
165TH PARALLEL AND LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA WELL INTO NEXT
WORKWEEK. SMALLER-SCALE DETAILS ARE LESS CERTAIN, ESPECIALLY WITH
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA, WHERE MODERATE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND NORTHERN GULF. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS
AND EXTENDED UNSETTLED STRETCH WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCE REGION WIDE
THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE WIDESPREAD, ORGANIZED AND
WINDIER FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD. A
MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR THOSE
AREAS NEXT WEEK.
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS, PARTICULARLY THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SOUTHERN BERING SEA, STRENGTHENING SYSTEMS CARRY THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING WINDS AND ROUGHER SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CREATE HAZARDOUS MARINE ENVIRONMENT FOR BOATING, COMMERCIAL
FISHING AND VESSEL OPERATIONS, WITH HEAVIER SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. OVERALL, THE WETTER AND WINDIER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND COASTAL ALASKA WILL REQUIRE ATTENTION TO ACCUMULATING RAINFALL
IMPACTS AND MARINE HAZARDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-DD
AVIATION
PANC...RAIN SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES UP COOK INLET. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH COMPLETELY BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE VFR CEILINGS BECOME PREDOMINATE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS TOWARDS
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page