970
FXAK68 PAFC 160039
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
439 PM AKDT WED JUL 15 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
RAINFALL HAS TAPERED OFF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE KENAI
PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE, AND MUCH OF THE MATSU, WITH ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS MAINLY STAYING OVER THE TERRAIN. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST, RAIN LINGERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SUSITNA AND COPPER VALLEYS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA,
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS FAR NORTH AS ANCHORAGE
AND THE MATSU THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE RELAXING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING TO OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
THAT WILL SWEEP SLOWLY WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH RAIN REACHING THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA MID TO
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREADING NORTH ACROSS ANCHORAGE, THE
MATSU, AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY THE AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION PUSHES EAST WITH THE FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER BASIN. THE REST
OF SOUTHCENTRAL REMAINS SHOWERY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS
LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE GAP
WINDS WILL LIKELY COME INTO SOME AREAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE
FARTHER SOUTH LOW TRACK WILL LEAD TO WEAKER WINDS THAN OBSERVED
YESTERDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND, YET ANOTHER LOW WILL ROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH, AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AND LEADING TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)...
DISCUSSION:
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER THE
BERING STRAIT IS STARTING TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND
NUNIVAK ISLAND. THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW IS SWEEPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, BRINGING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THESE AREAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ON
THE PACIFIC/GULF SIDE OF THE ALEUTIANS AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
AND LIFTS TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY ON THURSDAY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AKPEN AND INTO INLAND BRISTOL BAY REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED PRECIP SLIGHTLY EASTWARDS WITH
THIS SYSTEM, PLACING BETHEL AND THE KUSKO RIVER ON THE EDGE OF
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY
BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES TOWARDS COOK INLET AND EFFECTIVELY STALLS AS IT QUICKLY
WEAKENS.
BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST WEEK, THE NEXT IN LINE OF
SYSTEMS WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHWARDS FROM EASTERN RUSSIA TOWARDS THE
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN AKPEN ON FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN, MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE LOW ORGANIZES AND THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT ROTATES THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS. MODELS HAVE COME
IN A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW AS IT MOVES OVER THE BERING SEA
WITH SMALL CRAFT AND GALE FORCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RAPIDLY
MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW SWINGS DOWN
TOWARDS THE ISLANDS BEFORE PIVOTING BACK NORTH, STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS MOVING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AGAIN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS MOVING THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY. HOWEVER, GUSTY
WINDS MAY LINGER AS THE LOW SLOWS AS IT BEGINS TO PIVOT NORTH.
- PP
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THERE IS A
STRONG SIGNAL IN THE GLOBAL MODELS OF A SLOW MOVING, HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONSOLIDATING ALONG 165TH WEST MERIDIAN
AND LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA WELL INTO NEXT WORKWEEK.
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS ARE LESS CERTAIN, ESPECIALLY WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA, WHERE MODERATE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND NORTHERN GULF. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS
AN EXTENDED UNSETTLED STRETCH OF DAILY RAIN CHANCES REGION WIDE
THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE WIDESPREAD, ORGANIZED AND
WINDIER FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD. A
MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR THOSE
AREAS NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
IS TIMING OUT SHORTWAVES (WHICH WILL DRIVE PERIODS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL) ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPLEX
THAT WILL ANCHOR OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA.
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS, PARTICULARLY THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SOUTHERN BERING SEA, STRENGTHENING SYSTEMS CARRY THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING WINDS AND ROUGHER SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CREATE HAZARDOUS MARINE ENVIRONMENT FOR BOATING, COMMERCIAL
FISHING AND VESSEL OPERATIONS, WITH HEAVIER SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. OVERALL, THE WETTER AND WINDIER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND COASTAL ALASKA WILL REQUIRE ATTENTION TO ACCUMULATING RAINFALL
IMPACTS AND MARINE HAZARDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-DD/AM
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT, BUT WILL LIKELY RETURN BY AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY.
AREAS OF RAIN AND SOME LOWERING OF CEILINGS ARE ALSO LIKELY BY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW APPROACHING SOUTHCENTRAL FROM
THE BRISTOL BAY VICINITY.
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