102
FXAK68 PAFC 240150
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
550 PM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
MORNING HAS SINCE ERODED THANKS TO DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTH ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS PERSIST FOR A FEW
COASTAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS SEWARD AND WHITTIER, DUE TO A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW OVER THE GULF AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO LOW TO MID 40S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. EARLY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN FALL INTO THE 30S FOR TYPICALLY
COOLER LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY. THE
ADDED RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER MAY ALSO LEAD TO A RETURN OF PATCHY FOG MONDAY MORNING. FOG
DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, IS LIKELY TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THE
PREVIOUS MORNING DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS WORKING IN ALONG WITH
TODAY'S SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES HELPING TO DRY THINGS
OUT.
MONDAY WILL START OFF SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF OUR NEXT RAIN-MAKER
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A EXTENSIVE FRONTAL
SYSTEM PROGRESSING ACROSS THE BERING AND WESTERN MAINLAND. THIS
FEATURE WILL EXTEND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE RIDGE IN PLACE
BEGINS TO SLUMP SOUTH AND LOSE AMPLITUDE. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES
RIDING WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL COMBINE WITH WARM,
MOIST ADVECTION TO GENERATE LIGHT, STEADY RAINFALL SPREADING
ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND MAT-SU VALLEYS BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ON TUESDAY AS A POTENT, NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST AND
PRODUCES DEEPER LIFT ALONG THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS. AS THE TROUGH
AND FRONT MOVE INLAND OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST, A STRONG
SOUTH-NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL,
SUPPORTING STRONG AND GUSTY GAP WINDS OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
VALLEY, KNIK VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS, ON THE ORDER OF 1 INCH OF MORE,
WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE
SUSITNA VALLEY, WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW HELPS TO WRING OUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS IN
THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND WHERE THE STRONGEST GAP WINDS OCCUR.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME AN END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER
ACROSS THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. AS THE MAIN
WEATHER SYSTEM DEPARTS, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND
GUSTY WINDS FOR WHITTIER AND SEWARD, SIMILAR TO THE WINDS OBSERVED
TODAY.
-TM/AS
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LOW
OVER THE BERING CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SPREADING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST COAST. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION, SUPPORTING PERIODS OF RAIN FROM THE ALEUTIANS AND
BERING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
BY MONDAY, THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EAST TOWARD SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELONGATED. CONTINUED CYCLONIC
FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FARTHER WEST, PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE SHOWERY ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO PERSIST, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING
AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY
AS THE TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY MOVES INLAND. SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, THOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY SCATTERED FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. MEANWHILE, A TRANSIENT AREA OF WEAK RIDGING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING, ALLOWING FOR A
RELATIVE DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION AND WINDS FOR A TIME.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-
LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS. GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
NEXT SYSTEM, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS ANOTHER INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW, PRECIPITATION, AND WINDS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FARTHER
EAST, SOUTHWEST ALASKA SHOULD SEE A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM DEPARTS, THOUGH
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
OVERALL, THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH
ONLY A BRIEF RELATIVE LULL BETWEEN SYSTEMS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES SOMEWHAT BY WEDNESDAY AS GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK OF THE NEXT BERING LOW, THOUGH ANOTHER
ROUND OF INCREASING WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS
AND BERING REMAINS FAVORABLE.
LM
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
THE LONG-TERM PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE BERING SEA AS
PROGRESSIVE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW CONTINUES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THAT A STRONG SYSTEM OFF OF THE KAMCHATKA COAST THURSDAY WILL MOVE
TO NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND BY FRIDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, SMALL-CRAFT TO GALE-FORCE WILL MOVE FROM THE
BERING TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ACCOMPANYING
THIS SYSTEM. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO
INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL EVENTUALLY GET IN ON THE RAIN BY FRIDAY.
PRIOR TO THIS RAIN, SOUTHCENTRAL WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED A
RELATIVELY NICE AND QUIET THURSDAY. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY, SUCH
AS THE YENTNA RIVER AT LAKE CREEK WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS.
STEADY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO WESTERN
ALASKA FROM NORTON SOUND. STEADY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WILL
MOVE EAST TO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A LOW IN THE GULF
ALSO MOVES EAST. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW WILL ALLOW RAIN
TO LINGER ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST INTO SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL. SHOWERS
CONTINUE ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FOR SUNDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM, WEAKER THAN THE FRIDAY SYSTEM, MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN BERING BY SATURDAY AND SPREADS RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN ALSO MAKES IT TO
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM, AS OF NOW, ARE TRENDING TO BE SMALL-CRAFT OR LESS.
AVIATION
PANC... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS. THE CHANCES OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE LOW DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES LEFT BEHIND BY THE
PARTING TROUGH.
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