731
FXAK68 PAFC 220032
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
432 PM AKDT WED OCT 21 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
THIS AFTERNOON, A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD, STALLING SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT AND
LINGERING IN-PLACE BEFORE DISSIPATING FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT, MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN, THOMPSON PASS AND THE GULF COAST FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND EASTWARD, BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE MUCH
COLDER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, DIPPING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S IN
MOST SPOTS FOR THURSDAY MORNING, AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
BE EVEN COLDER, WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO DEGREES FOR
LOCATIONS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FOG WILL DEVELOP IN SELECT LOCATIONS
WHERE SATURATED GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO
RAPIDLY REACH THE DEWPOINT. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
FROM THE WEST. FURTHER OUT, THE FRONT OF A STRONG BERING LOW WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS KODIAK AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
KENAI PENINSULA FOR SATURDAY MORNING, THEN LOWER CHANCES ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
KEY MESSAGES:
* A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA/COAST, NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST, AND PLATINUM TO
GOODNEWS BAY FROM 7AM FRIDAY TO 4AM SATURDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
35 TO 50 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
* A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST, INCLUDING KIPNUK, KWIGILLINGOK, AND KONGIGANAK FROM
8AM FRIDAY THROUGH 1AM SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY AROUND HIGH TIDES
NEAR 10AM AND 10PM FRIDAY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO CONTINUES
TO BE FOR WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHEST TIDE
LINE.
* A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN BRISTOL
BAY COAST FROM 10AM FRIDAY TO 7AM SATURDAY. WATER LEVELS WILL
MOST LIKELY BE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHEST TIDE
LINE. NUISANCE FLOODING OF LYING AREAS AND COASTAL EROSION IS
POSSIBLE.
* A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COLD BAY AND KING COVE
FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
75 MPH BEING POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION:
THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE A STORM FORCE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM A DEEP KAMCHATKA LOW THAT WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD GALES AND
AREAS OF STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE
BERING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT TO COLD
BAY AND KING COVE. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN PLACE
AS THERE REMAINS SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER OR NOT
WIND DIRECTION WILL ALIGN WELL ENOUGH WITH THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ORIENTED GAP. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND, WHICH IS NOT COMPLETELY LINED UP WITH THE
GAP. THIS KEEPS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AT A MODERATE LEVEL (40 TO
60 PERCENT) FOR GUSTS POTENTIALLY RAMPING UP TO 75 MPH.
NEVERTHELESS, UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE NOW OCCLUDING
KAMCHATKA LOW AND THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
QUITE WINDY FOR COLD BAY AND KING COVE, AND THEN WILL STEADILY,
IF NOT DRAMATICALLY DROP OFF IN INTENSITY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS COLD BAY AND KING COVE,
IT ALSO BEGINS TO AFFECT THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST, NORTHERN
BRISTOL BAY COAST, AND PLATINUM AND GOODNEWS BAY WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY HIGH END GALES AND STORM FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH. WHILE THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS WILL STAY
NEAR THE COAST, EVEN INLAND AREAS SUCH AS BETHEL ARE ON TRACK TO
SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 60 TO 70 MPH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
ALONG WITH WIND, COASTAL CONCERNS REMAIN. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST, INCLUDING KIPNUK, KWIGILLINGOK, AND KONGIGANAK FROM
8AM FRIDAY THROUGH 1AM SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY AROUND HIGH TIDES
NEAR 10AM AND 10PM FRIDAY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO CONTINUES TO
BE FOR WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHEST TIDE
LINE. IN CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS STORMS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS,
ALTHOUGH VERY STRONG, THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
DIRECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIMIT THE FETCH OF WIND POINTED
TOWARDS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST DUE TO THE SHAPE OF THE
COASTLINE FROM QUINHAGAK SOUTHWARD. COASTAL CONCERNS DECREASE
SOMEWHAT AS YOU HEAD SOUTH TOWARDS TOGIAK, BUT A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST DUE
TO THESE WINDS COINCIDING WITH TWO TIDAL CYCLES AND MOST LIKELY
PUSHING WATER LEVELS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHEST TIDE
LINE. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP OFF SATURDAY
MORNING AS WINDS DECREASE AND THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INLAND AND
WEAKENS, ALLEVIATING COASTAL CONCERNS.
-AM
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
KEY MESSAGES:
* A SERIES OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BERING SEA
AND INTO ALASKA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
* CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM WITH REGARDS TO IMPACTS. STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED COASTAL WATER LEVELS ARE CONCERNS FOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
PANC...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
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