017
FXAK68 PAFC 221226
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
426 AM AKDT THU OCT 22 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
DISCUSSION:
A FEW LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER FROM THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS
MORNING. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A STALLED UPPER-LEVEL LOW EAST OF
KAYAK ISLAND AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVING
OVER NORTHERN COOK INLET. BOTH FEATURES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TODAY, ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER, COLDER AIRMASS TO
ADVECT OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE.
THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WILL BE THE COLDER
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S IN THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AND MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE, OVERNIGHT
LOWS THE NEXT COUPLE OF THE MORNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL
BELOW NORMAL, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS AND
20S IN MOST SPOTS FOR THURSDAY MORNING, AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO NEAR ZERO DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY IF
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR.
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE WEST. AS THE RIDGE
SETTLES OVERHEAD, THE GAP WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
DIMINISH. FURTHER OUT, THE FRONT OF A STRONG BERING LOW WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS KODIAK AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
KENAI PENINSULA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
SUSITNA VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
KEY MESSAGES:
* A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA/COAST,
NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST, AND PLATINUM TO GOODNEWS BAY FROM 7
AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 35 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
* A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLD BAY, KING COVE, AND
AKUTAN FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
35 TO 50 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
* A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR UNALASKA AND NIKOLSKI FROM 10
PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM FRIDAY. SOUTH 25 TO 40 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
* A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST, INCLUDING KIPNUK, KWIGILLINGOK, AND KONGIGANAK FROM
8 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 1 AM SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY AROUND HIGH
TIDES NEAR 10 AM AND 10 PM FRIDAY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
CONTINUES TO BE FOR WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL
HIGHEST TIDE LINE.
* A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN BRISTOL
BAY COAST FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY. WATER LEVELS WILL
MOST LIKELY BE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHEST TIDE
LINE. NUISANCE FLOODING OF LYING AREAS AND COASTAL EROSION IS
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION:
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WITH ITS FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONT
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD TOWARDS A RIDGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN
BERING AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SOME FOG CONTINUES TO LINGER ALONG
THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM RIVER, OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING, EASTERN ALEUTIANS, THE ALASKA
PENINSULA (AKPEN), AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES.
THE FRONT FROM THE KAMCHATKA LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. IT REACHES ADAK BY
LATE THIS MORNING, UNALASKA AND THE PRIBILOFS BY LATE THIS EVENING,
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND SOUTHERN AKPEN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
AND BRISTOL BAY, THE NORTHERN AKPEN, AND MORE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF GALE
TO STORM FORCE WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
EAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE RIDGE TO THE EAST
WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE WINDS. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
STRONG WINDS, MULTIPLE WIND PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS INCLUDES A WIND ADVISORY FOR UNALASKA AND NIKOLSKI,
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR COLD BAY, KING COVE AND AKUTAN FRIDAY,
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED, AND A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO
60 TO 70 MPH INLAND AND UP TO 75 MPH ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. INITIALLY,
PRECIPITATION ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST MAY BE A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW. PRECIPITATION QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO RAIN BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND FRIDAY EVENING INLAND AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM TO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S AND SNOW
LEVELS RISE TO 2500 FEET. FOR THE AKPEN, ALEUTIANS, AND BERING,
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, BOTH WINDS AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY DECREASE. TIMING OF THIS IS FRIDAY MORNING
FOR ADAK, FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR UNALASKA AND NIKOLSKI, AND FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN AKPEN (COLD BAY). THE FRONT SLOWS OVER
SOUTHWEST, BRISTOL BAY, AND THE NORTHERN AKPEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS TO THE EAST. WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN AKPEN,
ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN BRISTOL BAY AND NORTH TO THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS AND SOUTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE
WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING ON FRIDAY.
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, WINDS WEAKEN TO
SMALL- CRAFT FORCE IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
ALONG WITH WINDS AND RAIN, COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST,
INCLUDING KIPNUK, KWIGILLINGOK, AND KONGIGANAK FROM 8 AM FRIDAY
THROUGH 1 AM SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY AROUND HIGH TIDES NEAR 10 AM
AND 10 PM FRIDAY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE FOR
WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHEST TIDE LINE. IN
CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS STORMS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, ALTHOUGH
VERY STRONG, THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIMIT THE FETCH OF WIND POINTED TOWARDS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST DUE TO THE SHAPE OF THE COASTLINE FROM
QUINHAGAK SOUTHWARD. COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS DECREASE FARTHER
SOUTHEAST TOWARD TOGIAK. HOWEVER, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 7
AM SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS LIKELY PUSH WATER LEVELS 1 TO 2
FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHEST TIDE LINE. WATER LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP OFF SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS DECREASE AND THE
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INLAND, ALLEVIATING COASTAL CONCERNS.
- PA
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
KEY MESSAGES:
* A SERIES OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BERING SEA
AND INTO ALASKA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
* CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM WITH REGARDS TO IMPACTS. STONG
ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED COASTAL WATER LEVELS ARE CONCERNS FOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
PANC...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
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