522
FXAK68 PAFC 230033
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
433 PM AKDT THU OCT 22 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
DISCUSSION:
THE MAIN STORY IS THE DRIER AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL, AS THE COLD AIRMASS
LINGERS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 20S IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND MID 30S ELSEWHERE,
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW
NORMAL, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AND
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COPPER RIVER VALLEY IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR.
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE FRONT OF A STRONG BERING LOW
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS KODIAK AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
KENAI PENINSULA AND BY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
SUSITNA VALLEY. CHANCES FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY
RANGE FROM 35 TO 50% FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND PALMER, UP TO 75%
TO 85% FOR THE GULF COAST, HOMER, AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WARM BACK UP INTO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE LOW 30S,
WITH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN DIPPING TO THE LOW 20S AND HIGH
TEENS.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
KEY MESSAGES:
* A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA/COAST, NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST, AND PLATINUM TO
GOODNEWS BAY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST 35 TO 50 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH ARE
EXPECTED.
* A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COLD BAY, KING COVE,
AND AKUTAN FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST 35 TO 50 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH ARE
EXPECTED.
* A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR UNALASKA AND NIKOLSKI
FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM FRIDAY. SOUTH 25 TO 40 MPH WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
* A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST, INCLUDING KIPNUK, KWIGILLINGOK, AND KONGIGANAK FROM
8 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 1 AM SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY AROUND HIGH
TIDES NEAR 10 AM AND 10 PM FRIDAY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
CONTINUES TO BE FOR WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL
HIGHEST TIDE LINE.
* A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN BRISTOL
BAY COAST FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY. WATER LEVELS WILL
MOST LIKELY BE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHEST TIDE
LINE. NUISANCE FLOODING OF LYING AREAS AND COASTAL EROSION IS
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION:
A STRONG, STORM-FORCE FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS A RIDGE WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE FRONT
FROM EXTENDS FROM A KAMCHATKA LOW AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE BERING AND SWEEP THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT IS TO TRACK TO BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS UNALASKA
AND THE PRIBILOFS BY LATE THIS EVENING, WHILE THE TIMING FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA IS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, AND BRISTOL BAY, THE NORTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA, AND MORE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF GALE TO STORM FORCE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AND MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE WINDS. WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG WINDS, MULTIPLE WIND HAZARDS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS INCLUDES A WIND ADVISORY FOR
UNALASKA AND NIKOLSKI, WHERE GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR COLD BAY, KING
COVE AND AKUTAN ON FRIDAY, WHERE GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED,
AND A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND NORTHERN
BRISTOL BAY COAST FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WHERE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 60 TO 70 MPH INLAND AND UP TO 75
MPH ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN
WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. INITIALLY, PRECIPITATION ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO RAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST AND FRIDAY EVENING INLAND AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO WARM TO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S AND SNOW LEVELS RISE TO 2500
FEET. FOR THE AKPEN, ALEUTIANS, AND BERING, PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, BOTH WINDS AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY DECREASE. TIMING OF THIS IS FRIDAY MORNING
FOR ADAK, FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR UNALASKA AND NIKOLSKI, AND FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA (COLD BAY). THE FRONT
SLOWS OVER SOUTHWEST, BRISTOL BAY, AND THE NORTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS TO THE EAST. WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HOWEVER, SHOWERS
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
THE NORTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN BRISTOL BAY
AND NORTH TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND BERING ON FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, WINDS WEAKEN TO SMALL-CRAFT FORCE IN THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING BY SATURDAY MORNING.
ALONG WITH WINDS AND RAIN, COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COAST, INCLUDING KIPNUK KWIGILLINGOK, AND KONGIGANAK FROM 8 AM
FRIDAY THROUGH 1 AM SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY AROUND HIGH TIDES NEAR
10 AM AND 10 PM FRIDAY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE
FOR WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHEST TIDE LINE.
IN CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS STORMS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, ALTHOUGH
VERY STRONG, THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIMIT THE FETCH OF WIND POINTED TOWARDS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST DUE TO THE SHAPE OF THE COASTLINE FROM
QUINHAGAK SOUTHWARD. COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS DECREASE FARTHER
SOUTHEAST TOWARD TOGIAK. HOWEVER, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 7
AM SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS LIKELY PUSH WATER LEVELS 1 TO 2
FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHEST TIDE LINE. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP OFF SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS DECREASE AND THE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES INLAND, ALLEVIATING COASTAL CONCERNS.
-AM/PA
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
DISCUSSION:
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN FOCUSED ON A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS THAT WILL LIFT UP ACROSS THE BERING SEA. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY, WITH MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOWING DECENT CONTINUITY ON GENERAL PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE
SYSTEMS RIDING ALONG ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ON THE GULF SIDE WITH RIDGING IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS MAY TRY TO
RIDE UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...HELPING TO FLATTEN IT
SOME BEFORE IT REBUILDS OVER THE GULF. AS SUCH, SOUTHCENTRAL LOOKS
FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.
MOST OF THE SYSTEMS OVER THE BERING WILL BE ROTATING AROUND A
COMPLEX KAMCHATKA LOW. THESE SYSTEMS WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LOW, MOVING ACROSS THE BERING, AND LIFTING UP TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST AND BERING STRAIT AREA. STRONG WINDS AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY EACH OF THESE
SYSTEMS, STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST THEN DROPPING OFF AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND. RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA /
NUNIVAK ISLAND AREA DOWN TOWARDS THE GREATER BRISTOL BAY AREA COULD
POSSIBLY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, OR ALL SNOW AT
TIMES. ONE FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT WEEK WILL BE A STRONG
NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND
BERING SEA.
- PP
AVIATION
PANC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
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