063
FXAK68 PAFC 231234
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
434 AM AKDT FRI OCT 23 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
DISCUSSION:
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF THE AKPEN
NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS MORNING. AT
THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER INTERIOR
ALASKA WITH A TANDEM OF COMPACT SURFACE LOWS OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO IS
KEEPING NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY
FOR SEWARD AND THE WATERWAYS SOUTH OF VALDEZ. THERE REMAINS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THESE WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS AS THE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKEN.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND ZERO DEGREES. AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS REMAINS
OVER MUCH OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN, EXPANDING NORTHWARD AS THE
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE COOLS AND SATURATES. THIS AREA OF CLOUD COVER
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THIS MORNING, BUT WILL
LIKELY ERODE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST MORNING AS THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING EAST
FROM THE EASTERN BERING TODAY.
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE FRONT OF A STRONG BERING LOW
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS KODIAK AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
KENAI PENINSULA AND BY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
SUSITNA VALLEY. CHANCES FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY
RANGE FROM 45 TO 60% FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND PALMER, AND UP TO
70 TO 90% FOR THE GULF COAST, HOMER, AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY. MOST
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL SEE RAIN, OR A SLIGHT CHANCE
(15-25%) OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX, WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, FOR
LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND NORTHERN
COPPER RIVER BASIN, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (80-90%) THAT
PRECIPITATION FALLS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW AT TIMES. FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY, THIS INCLUDES TYPICALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS (E.G. N OF WILLOW AND N AND W OF TALKEETNA,
INCLUDING BROAD PASS).
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS AND A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WARM BACK UP INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S BY SUNDAY WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE LOW 30S, WITH THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN DIPPING TO THE LOW 20S AND HIGH TEENS.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
KEY MESSAGES:
* A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA/COAST, NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST, AND PLATINUM TO
GOODNEWS BAY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM SATURDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST 35 TO 50 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH ARE
EXPECTED.
* A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COLD BAY, KING COVE,
AND AKUTAN THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 35 TO
50 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
* A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR UNALASKA AND NIKOLSKI
THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH 25 TO 40 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
* A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST, INCLUDING KIPNUK, KWIGILLINGOK, AND KONGIGANAK FROM
8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 1 AM SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY AROUND
HIGH TIDES NEAR 10 AM AND 10 PM TODAY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
CONTINUES TO BE FOR WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL
HIGHEST TIDE LINE.
* A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN BRISTOL
BAY COAST FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM SATURDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL MOST LIKELY BE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL
HIGHEST TIDE LINE. NUISANCE FLOODING OF LYING AREAS AND COASTAL
EROSION IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION:
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG FRONT ALONG A LINE
FROM NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING TO UNALASKA.
ALONG THE FRONT, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND WIDESPREAD SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY GALE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS (WITH HIGHER GUSTS) ARE
SEEN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY CLEAR AND
CALM ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN AKPEN EARLY THIS
MORNING GIVEN HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE EAST. BEHIND THE FRONT,
SHOWERS AND SOUTHWESTERLY GALE- FORCE WINDS PERSIST IN THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING AS A KAMCHATKA LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND OCCLUDE.
THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN
BERING AND THE STRONG WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
THIS FRONT CONTINUES EAST TODAY, MOVING TO SOUTHWEST AND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA BY LATE THIS MORNING, THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY
COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND EASTERN BRISTOL BAY AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
EAST, IT PUSHES INTO HIGHER PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.
THIS TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HELPS STRENGTHEN WINDS.
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG WINDS, MULTIPLE WIND HAZARDS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS INCLUDES A WIND ADVISORY FOR
UNALASKA AND NIKOLSKI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH ARE EXPECTED (LIKELY PEAKING LATER THIS MORNING), A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR COLD BAY, KING COVE, AND AKUTAN THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED, AND A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY COAST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 60 TO 70 MPH
INLAND AND UP TO 75 MPH ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. INITIALLY, PRECIPITATION
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. PRECIPITATION QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST AND THIS EVENING INLAND AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO WARM TO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S AND SNOW LEVELS RISE TO 2500 FEET.
FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA, ALEUTIANS, AND BERING, PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS.
ALONG WITH WINDS AND RAIN, COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COAST, INCLUDING KIPNUK KWIGILLINGOK, AND KONGIGANAK FROM 8 AM
THIS MORNING THROUGH 1 AM SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY AROUND HIGH
TIDES NEAR 10 AM AND 10 PM TODAY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
CONTINUES TO BE FOR WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL
HIGHEST TIDE LINE. IN CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS STORMS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, ALTHOUGH VERY STRONG, THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIMIT THE
FETCH OF WIND POINTED TOWARDS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST DUE TO THE
SHAPE OF THE COASTLINE FROM QUINHAGAK SOUTHWARD. COASTAL FLOODING
CONCERNS DECREASE FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD TOGIAK. HOWEVER, A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY
COAST FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
LIKELY PUSH WATER LEVELS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHEST
TIDE LINE. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF SATURDAY MORNING
AS WINDS DECREASE AND THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INLAND, ALLEVIATING
COASTAL CONCERNS.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, BOTH WINDS AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY DECREASE. TIMING OF THIS IS THIS AFTERNOON
FOR UNALASKA AND NIKOLSKI AND THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA (COLD BAY). THE FRONT SLOWS OVER SOUTHWEST, BRISTOL
BAY, AND THE NORTHERN AKPEN TONIGHT AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS TO THE EAST. WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HOWEVER,
SHOWERS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA, ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN BRISTOL BAY AND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES IN ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER EAST AND ALLOW ANY
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO CROSS THE ALASKA RANGE BY EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION THAT LINGERS INTO SUNDAY ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS AND SOUTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS
PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE INITIAL LOW MOVES NORTH AND A SECOND LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING. SHOWERS AND GALE-FORCE WINDS SPREAD
TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN, THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BERING,
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES
NORTHEASTWARD. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE
WIND RELATIVE TO THE KUSKOKWIM COAST, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
WINDS PUSH WATER LEVELS UP AGAIN LATE SUNDAY EVENING, WITH THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE
LINE.
-AM/PA
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
DISCUSSION:
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN FOCUSED ON A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS THAT WILL LIFT UP ACROSS THE BERING SEA. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY, WITH MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOWING DECENT CONTINUITY ON GENERAL PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE
SYSTEMS RIDING ALONG ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ON THE GULF SIDE WITH RIDGING IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS MAY TRY TO
RIDE UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...HELPING TO FLATTEN IT
SOME BEFORE IT REBUILDS OVER THE GULF. AS SUCH, SOUTHCENTRAL LOOKS
FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.
MOST OF THE SYSTEMS OVER THE BERING WILL BE ROTATING AROUND A
COMPLEX KAMCHATKA LOW. THESE SYSTEMS WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LOW, MOVING ACROSS THE BERING, AND LIFTING UP TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST AND BERING STRAIT AREA. STRONG WINDS AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY EACH OF THESE
SYSTEMS, STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST THEN DROPPING OFF AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND. RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA /
NUNIVAK ISLAND AREA DOWN TOWARDS THE GREATER BRISTOL BAY AREA COULD
POSSIBLY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, OR ALL SNOW AT
TIMES. ONE FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT WEEK WILL BE A STRONG
NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND
BERING SEA.
- PP
AVIATION
PANC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
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