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FXAK68 PAFC 240138
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
538 PM AKDT FRI OCT 23 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE
SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG BERING SEA LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKAN
MAINLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE RECOVERED INTO
THE MID TO HIGH 30S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL, WITH THE COPPER
BASIN REMAINING IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL SEE HIGHS RETURN TO THE 40S AND LOWS NEAR
FREEZING, WITH HIGHS IN THE COPPER BASIN WARMING INTO THE LOW 30S
AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE ARRIVING BERING FRONT WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS KODIAK AND THE SOUTHEASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA AND BY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SUSITNA
VALLEY. CHANCES FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY RANGE
FROM 45 TO 60% FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND PALMER, AND UP TO 70 TO
90% FOR THE GULF COAST, HOMER, AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY. MOST
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL SEE RAIN, OR A SLIGHT CHANCE
(15-25%) OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX, WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, FOR
LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND NORTHERN
COPPER RIVER BASIN, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (80-90%) THAT
PRECIPITATION FALLS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW AT TIMES. FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY, THIS INCLUDES TYPICALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS (E.G. N OF WILLOW AND N AND W OF TALKEETNA,
INCLUDING BROAD PASS).
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS AND A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WARM BACK UP INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S BY SUNDAY WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE LOW 30S, WITH THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN DIPPING TO THE LOW 20S AND HIGH TEENS.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
KEY MESSAGES:
* A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA/COAST, NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST, AND PLATINUM TO
GOODNEWS BAY UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 35 TO 50
MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
* A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COLD BAY, KING COVE,
AND AKUTAN THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 35 TO
50 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
* A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST, INCLUDING KIPNUK, KWIGILLINGOK, AND KONGIGANAK FROM
THROUGH 1 AM SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY AROUND HIGH TIDES NEAR 10
PM TODAY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE FOR WATER
LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHEST TIDE LINE.
* A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN BRISTOL
BAY COAST UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY. WATER LEVELS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHEST TIDE LINE. NUISANCE
FLOODING OF LYING AREAS AND COASTAL EROSION IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION:
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A STRONG FRONT ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA INCLUDING THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. ALONG THE FRONT, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
WIDESPREAD SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY GALE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS
(WITH HIGHER GUSTS) ARE SEEN. BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS PERSIST IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
AND WESTERN BERING AS A KAMCHATKA LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
AND OCCLUDE.
THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN
BERING AND THE STRONG WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
THIS FRONT CONTINUES EAST THIS EVENING, MOVING TO SOUTHWEST AND
THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY LATE THIS MORNING PUSHING TOWARDS THE
EASTERN BRISTOL BAY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST BY THIS
EVENING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST, HIGH WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE
ALASKA PENINSULA, KUSKOKWIM DELTA, AND THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY
COAST, SO THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR TO THE REGION, LEADING TO
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PRECIPITATION
THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN BY THIS EVENING ALONG THE
COAST AND THIS EVENING INLAND AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM TO
THE UPPER 30S TO 40S AND SNOW LEVELS RISE TO 2500 FEET.
ALONG WITH WINDS AND RAIN, COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS REMAINS A
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST, INCLUDING KIPNUK KWIGILLINGOK, AND
KONGIGANAK 1 AM SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY AROUND HIGH TIDES AT 10 PM
TODAY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE FOR WATER LEVELS
2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHEST TIDE LINE. DUE TO THE 10 AM
TIDE BEING LOWER THAN FORECASTED, THE LOWER END OF THE FORECASTED
VALUES ARE MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO IS LIMITING THE
FETCH OF WIND POINTED TOWARDS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST DUE TO THE
SHAPE OF THE COASTLINE FROM QUINHAGAK SOUTHWARD. COASTAL FLOODING
CONCERNS DECREASE FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD TOGIAK. HOWEVER, A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY
COAST UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS LIKELY PUSH WATER
LEVELS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHEST TIDE LINE. WATER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS DECREASE
AND THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INLAND, ALLEVIATING COASTAL CONCERNS.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, BOTH WINDS AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY DECREASE. THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT FOR THE
COLD BAY AREA IS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT SLOWS OVER SOUTHWEST,
BRISTOL BAY, AND THE NORTHERN AKPEN TONIGHT AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS TO THE EAST. WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA,
ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN BRISTOL BAY AND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES IN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER
EAST AND ALLOW ANY REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO CROSS THE ALASKA RANGE
BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION THAT LINGERS INTO SUNDAY
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS AND SOUTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS
PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE INITIAL LOW MOVES NORTH AND A SECOND LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING. SHOWERS AND GALE-FORCE WINDS SPREAD
TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN, THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BERING,
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES
NORTHEASTWARD. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE
WIND RELATIVE TO THE KUSKOKWIM COAST, THERE MAY BE MORE RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH OF WINDS AND THE
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS, SO DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED.
-JAR/PA
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY)...
DISCUSSION:
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED ON A TRANSITION TO A MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE GULF GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND A SERIES OF TROUGH
MOVE ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE REGARDING
THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL UPPER-LEVEL LOWS LATER
IN THE PERIOD.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE SOME INFLUENCE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA, KEEPING
CONDITIONS RELATIVELY QUIET COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER WEST.
MEANWHILE, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS A BROADER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, BERING SEA, AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS TROUGHING BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED
ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA. A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO MAINLAND ALASKA, BRINGING
COLDER AIR AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST, WHILE COLDER TEMPERATURES INLAND MAY
SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL SNOW, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE KUSKOKWIM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MAY ALSO
BEGIN TO SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN, WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA, AS WELL AS THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES AND AVAILABLE COLD AIR.
WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL TRANSITION
TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGHING PATTERN, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK REGARDING THE TIMING, STRENGTH, AND
PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN DETERMINING WHERE THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AND
STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOP.
LM
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD,
THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOW VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY START TO LOWER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING IN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KT;
HOWEVER, THE TURNAGAIN ARM WIND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND IF IT
BENDS INTO THE TERMINAL, WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 15-25 KT AT
TIMES.
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