828
FXAK68 PAFC 250052
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
452 PM AKDT SAT OCT 24 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO FREEZING OR ABOVE ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHCENTRAL, INCLUDING LOCATIONS AS FAR NORTH AS THE TALKEETNA
SPUR ROAD IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND CHITINA IN THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN. PRECIPITATION HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO COOK INLET, HUGGING THE
WESTERN EDGE JUST BEFORE REACHING NIKISKI. AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD, LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL FILTER ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTH AREAS WITH ABOVE
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES .IN THE TRANSITION ZONE IS
TALKEETNA, WHICH BEGAN RECEIVING SNOW EARLIER THIS MORNING, AND
HAS VACILLATED BETWEEN SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AND BACK
TO RAIN BY SUNDAY WITH DIURNAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGES.
GAP WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KENAI PENINSULA SUNDAY MORNING,
INDUCED BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE AKPEN FROM
THE WEST. THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE THEN BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL HELP
TO SHUT OFF GAP WINDS AND ALLOW FOR STEADIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS
COOK INLET AND THE SOUTHERN MAT-SU VALLEYS BEFORE THESE FEATURES
EXIT THE REGION EASTWARD AND THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
A TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF BOTH THE SUSITNA AND COPPER
RIVER VALLEYS FOR MONDAY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT AGAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
KEY MESSAGES:
* SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST TONIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST AND THE
NORTHEASTERN ALASKA PENINSULA AS A FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH.
* SHOWERS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS STORM-FORCE (WITH
HIGHER GUSTS) MOVE THROUGH THE BERING ON SUNDAY AND REACHES THE
SOUTHWEST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
* A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA (KIPNUK, TOKSOOK BAY, KWIGILLINGOK, AND KONGIGANAK) SUNDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY FOR MINOR-MODERATE FLOODING.
* A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA FOR 30 TO
40 MPH WINDS AND 55 MPH GUSTS, AS THE PUSH OF STRONG WINDS
APPROACH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION:
TONIGHT, A FRONT ADVANCES INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA, WITH THE
CORE OF STRONGEST RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN BRISTOL BAY AND LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. WEST OF THE FRONT, CONDITIONS HAVE CLEARED FOR
MUCH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND
PLACES NORTHWARD UP TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
COAST. THE FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKENS AS IT
PUSHES INTO HIGHER PRESSURE. MOST SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA LOOK TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LINGERING ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST OVER THE KILBUCK MOUNTAINS THROUGH TOMORROW.
FOCUS SHIFTS WESTWARD LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE WORKWEEK AS
A SERIES OF LOWS LOOK TO TRACK THROUGH THE BERING. THE FIRST OF
THESE DEVELOPS OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TODAY AND MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN BERING BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW CONTINUES
NORTHEAST TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING. SOUTH OF THE LOW, RAIN AND SOUTHWESTERLY GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE BERING, WITH SHOWERS AND STRONG
WINDS REACHING THE KUSKOKWIM COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE KUSKOKWIM COAST UP TO BETHEL
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA, IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE KUSKOKWIM COAST SUNDAY EVENING. A NEW
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST,
WITH THE WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 2 TO 3 ABOVE THE
NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE FOR KIPNUK. KWIGILLINGOK IS NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE AS RELATIVELY HIGH OF WATER LEVELS OR IMPACTS FROM FLOODING,
BUT WILL STILL SEE WATERS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHEST
TIDE LINE. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES MORE SCATTERED THROUGHOUT MONDAY
MORNING THEN TAPERS OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER LOW MOVES NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC AND CROSSES THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND GALE TO STORM-
FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS, AND HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS TO THE WESTERN
BERING. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BE A BIT STRONGER AND TRACKS FURTHER
WEST AND NORTH COMPARED TO SUNDAY'S LOW. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE
LOW BEGINS TO PUSH A FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS AND
BERING. SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN ALONG
THIS FRONT. CURRENTLY, THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF FLOODING POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE, BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA, POTENTIALLY LIMITING
THE ABILITY FOR FLOOD WATERS FROM THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM TO
RECEDE QUICKLY.
-CL
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA AS BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN, SHOWING A SERIES
OF UPPER-LEVEL LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND INTO MAINLAND
ALASKA. HOWEVER, DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING THE STRENGTH,
TIMING, AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES, PARTICULARLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BY WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF WEAKENS.
A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
ALASKA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING COLDER AIR AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. RAIN
WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG COASTAL
LOCATIONS, WHILE COLDER TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW, WITH SNOW BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM. MEANWHILE, SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AND DISTURBANCES MOVE
EASTWARD.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE BERING SEA AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP REINFORCE BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA,
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER
CIRCULATION. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, BERING SEA, AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
FARTHER EAST, AN UPPERL-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA,
PARTICULARLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA.
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION MAY ALSO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SOME INLAND LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY COLDER AIR BECOMES
ESTABLISHED.
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING LOOKS TO
PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA AS THE BERING SEA LOW GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AND ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA, WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR COLDER AIR TO SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH MAY INCREASE
SNOW CHANCES ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS, WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE PRIMARILY RAIN OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGH MAY ALSO
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS.
WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL
TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGHING PATTERN, UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK REGARDING THE TIMING,
STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL UPPER-LEVEL LOWS. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN DETERMINING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, PRECIPITATION TYPE, AND WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP.
LM
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
INCREASES. OVERALL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, BUT GUSTY
TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS MAY BEND INTO THE TERMINAL AT TIMES RESULTING
IN WIND GUSTS OF 15-25 KT.
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