360
FXAK68 PAFC 251302
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
502 AM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
DISCUSSION:
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REMAINS IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH A
FRONT EXTENDING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT IS BRINGING IN WARMTH AND MOISTURE AS IT
ORIGINATES NEAR 30N 180. IN SPITE OF THE MOISTURE, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED BY CROSS-BARRIER FLOW DOWNSLOPING THE
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION TYPE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS HAS BEEN
RAIN WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SNOW BEING IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. SATURDAY
EVENING SAW SOME FREEZING RAIN AROUND TALKEETNA THAT LED TO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES HAVE EDGED UP OVERNIGHT IN
THE WARM ADVECTION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CHANGED THE PRECIPITATION
IN TALKEETNA TO RAIN. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN NEAR WILLOW WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT FREEZING, BUT THAT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG SHOULD IT OCCUR WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AROUND WILLOW SOON. NORTH OF
TALKEETNA, THERE REMAINS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE AREAS CLOSE TO THE ALASKA RANGE ARE SEEING
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING LEADING TO A LONG DURATION
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANYWHERE BETWEEN 4 AND 12 INCHES
(HIGHEST AMOUNTS TOWARD BROAD PASS) BEFORE IT ALL ENDS.
FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING START WITH THE WINDS COMING
ACROSS THE CHUGACH RANGE AND THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM. THE PATTERN
FAVORS THE TURNAGAIN ARM WIND TO BEND INTO ANCHORAGE, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND WEST ANCHORAGE. SO FAR THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED EXCEPT FOR
AN OCCASIONAL GUST AS THE TURNAGAIN ARM JET HAS REMAINED SOUTH OF
ANCHORAGE. NOTABLY, WHEN ANCHORAGE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS HAD
THAT OCCASIONAL GUST, THE TEMPERATURE HAS SPIKED. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR YESTERDAY (SATURDAY) AT THE AIRPORT WAS 44 AS ONE
OF THESE GUSTS BLEW THROUGH FOR JUST A FEW MINUTES. BEFORE (AND
AFTER) THIS ONE BRIEF GUST OF WIND, THE TEMPERATURE HAD ONLY
REACHED 38. THAT 6 DEGREE SPIKE SHOWS THE WARMER AIR JUST OFF THE
SURFACE AND WHAT IS MOVING THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND WHY MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF COOK INLET BY EARLY AFTERNOON RESULTING WITH
THE RAIN ENDING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SNOW UPSLOPING IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE SO THE NORTHERN SUSITNA
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO HANG ONTO THE SNOW UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION, BUT THE
FARTHER NORTH ONE GOES THE BETTER THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THEREFORE THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY IS LOOKING AT ANOTHER SHOT
FOR SOME SNOW AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS START TO DRY OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
KEY MESSAGES:
* A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
(KIPNUK, TOKSOOK BAY, KWIGILLINGOK, AND KONGIGANAK) FROM 7 PM
TODAY (SUNDAY) TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR MINOR-MODERATE FLOODING.
* A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA FROM 4 PM
TODAY (SUNDAY) TO 10 AM MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
* ACTIVE PATTERN OUT WEST CONTINUES AS MORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE THROUGH THE BERING. THE FIRST LOW BRINGS STRONG WINDS AND
RAIN THROUGH THE BERING TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY INTO MONDAY.
THE SECOND LOW LOOKS TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO THE FAR
WESTERN BERING ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION:
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAKENING FRONT ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN BRISTOL BAY.
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED, HOWEVER SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST DOWN TO THE NORTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EASTWARD THIS
MORNING, IT WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT EAST INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. SOME
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ALSO HELPS CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY. INFLUENCE FROM THIS TROUGH WEAKENS FURTHER
SOUTH DOWN THE ALASKA PENINSULA, WHERE CLEARER SKIES ARE SEEN.
TO THE WEST, A KAMCHATKA LOW IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
BERING. TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW, RAIN AND GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS (WEST OF
ADAK). THIS LOW QUICKLY TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA
BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. RAIN AND GALE- FORCE WINDS
(WITH HIGHER GUSTS) SPREAD THROUGH THE BERING TODAY, REACHING THE
KUSKOKWIM COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INLAND
OVERNIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA INLAND THROUGH BETHEL FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 10
AM MONDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS WINDS PUSH ONSHORE.
ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
THE KUSKOKWIM COAST THIS EVENING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST BETWEEN 7 PM THIS EVENING AND
7 AM MONDAY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 2 TO 3
ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE FOR KIPNUK. KWIGILLINGOK IS NOT
EXPECTED TO SEE AS RELATIVELY HIGH OF WATER LEVELS OR IMPACTS FROM
FLOODING, BUT WILL STILL SEE WATERS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL
HIGHEST TIDE LINE. WINDS RAPIDLY DECREASE MONDAY MORNING AS THE
LOW DISSIPATES TO THE NORTH, WHICH WILL ALSO LOWER COASTAL
FLOODING RISK. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WITH THE FAST MOTION AND RAPID DISSIPATION
OF THE LOW, MOST SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE KILBUCK MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE.
THOUGH SOME STRONGER WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT, CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ARE LOW, AND MOST CLOUDS CLEAR BY MONDAY
MORNING.
THE NEXT LOW MOVES UP FROM THE PACIFIC AND CROSSES THE FAR WESTERN
ALEUTIAN CHAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL BE
STRONGER THAN THE FIRST LOW, HOWEVER IT TRACKS MUCH FURTHER WEST.
THE LOW REACHES ITS STRONGEST POINT NORTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD, HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA,
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY PEAK AT
HURRICANE- FORCE IN THE WESTERN BERING MONDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY
STORM-FORCE WINDS SEEN THROUGH THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
AND CENTRAL BERING AS THE LOW SENDS A FRONT EASTWARD. IN ADDITION
TO WINDS, RAIN WILL BE SEEN BOTH NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT.
THE FRONT STALLS ON A LINE FROM WEST OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST DOWN
TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA. THOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS SUNDAY'S SYSTEM, PROLONGED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE BERING TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.
THIS WILL POTENTIALLY LIMIT THE ABILITY FOR FLOOD WATERS TO RECEDE
QUICKLY FROM SUNDAY/MONDAY'S SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ALASKA WILL MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY. SOME WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES BRING
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TUESDAY. A LARGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE BERING
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AND WILL HELP PROGRESS THE FRONT EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT BREAKS DOWN HIGHER PRESSURE TO
THE EAST.
- PA
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY)...
DISCUSSION:
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA AS BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN, SHOWING A SERIES
OF UPPER-LEVEL LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND INTO MAINLAND
ALASKA. HOWEVER, DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING THE STRENGTH,
TIMING, AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES, PARTICULARLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BY WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF WEAKENS.
A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
ALASKA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING COLDER AIR AND INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. RAIN WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG COASTAL
LOCATIONS, WHILE COLDER TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW, WITH SNOW BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM. MEANWHILE, SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AND DISTURBANCES MOVE
EASTWARD.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE BERING SEA AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP REINFORCE BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA,
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER
CIRCULATION. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, BERING SEA, AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
FARTHER EAST, AN UPPERL-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA,
PARTICULARLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA.
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION MAY ALSO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SOME INLAND LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY COLDER AIR BECOMES
ESTABLISHED.
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING LOOKS TO
PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA AS THE BERING SEA LOW GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AND ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA, WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR COLDER AIR TO SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH MAY INCREASE
SNOW CHANCES ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS, WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE PRIMARILY RAIN OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGH MAY ALSO
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS.
WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL
TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGHING PATTERN, UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK REGARDING THE TIMING,
STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL UPPER-LEVEL LOWS/ THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN DETERMINING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, PRECIPITATION TYPE, AND WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP.
LM
AVIATION
PANC...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS MORNING, BREAKING BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN BY 06Z TODAY. LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE TERMINAL THIS
MORNING WITH CLOUD CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FT. CEILINGS WILL
DROP FURTHER TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RISING AGAIN AFTER
06Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING.
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