188
FXAK68 PAFC 260115
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
515 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
TEMPERATURES REMAINED WELL ABOVE FREEZING TODAY AS FRONT MOVED
THROUGH THE KENAI PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE BOWL AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND THIS AFTERNOON. WEB CAMERA VIEWS AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL
CONTINUED TO SHOW SNOW COVERED ROADS IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY NORTH
OF TALKEETNA EASTWARD TO THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE
RICHARDSON HWY AND ALONG THE TOK HIGHWAY NORTHWARD FROM GULKANA.
SNOW WILL PERSIST IN THESE AREAS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
FRONT LINGERS HERE THE LONGEST. RAIN AND BARE ROADS WERE SEEN IN
THE CAMERAS ELSEWHERE AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS RECORDING WIDESPREAD SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
CONTINUED CALM WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
30S TO LOWER 40S TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH 3:00PM
RANGED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AS HIGH AS FOUR TENTHS
OF AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN COPPER BASIN REMAINED BELOW FREEZING
TODAY. OVERNIGHT, SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON'S MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO ALL SNOW AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD. SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO LATE TOMORROW MORNING WITH
A 15% CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE AN INCH BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. A SECOND WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATION IS NOT
EXPECTED.
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, A HIGH BUILDS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASE, WINDS IN THE COOK INLET AND SHELIKOF
STRAIT INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT AND GALE STRENGTH WINDS TOMORROW.
RIDGING ARRIVES TO SOUTHCENTRAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LEADING TO
DRY CONDITIONS.
-JOHNSTON
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
KEY MESSAGES:
* A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
(KIPNUK, TOKSOOK BAY, KWIGILLINGOK, AND KONGIGANAK) FROM 7 PM
TODAY (SUNDAY) TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR MINOR-MODERATE FLOODING.
* A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA FROM 4 PM
TODAY (SUNDAY) TO 10 AM MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
* ACTIVE PATTERN OUT WEST CONTINUES AS MORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE THROUGH THE BERING. THE FIRST LOW BRINGS STRONG WINDS AND
RAIN THROUGH THE BERING TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY INTO MONDAY.
THE SECOND LOW LOOKS TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO THE FAR
WESTERN BERING ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING IS CURRENTLY SPREADING OVER
THE THE KUSKOKWIM COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INLAND
OVERNIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA, FROM THE COAST, INLAND THROUGH BETHEL FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 10 AM MONDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS WINDS
PUSH ONSHORE. ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED FOR THE KUSKOKWIM COAST THIS EVENING. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST BETWEEN 7 PM
THIS EVENING AND 7 AM MONDAY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
UP TO 1.5 TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE FOR KIPNUK.
KWIGILLINGOK IS NOT EXPECTED TO SEE AS RELATIVELY HIGH OF WATER
LEVELS OR IMPACTS FROM FLOODING, BUT WILL STILL SEE WATERS 1 TO 2
FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHEST TIDE LINE. WINDS RAPIDLY DECREASE
MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW DISSIPATES TO THE NORTH, WHICH WILL ALSO
LOWER COASTAL FLOODING RISK. THIS IS COMPOUNDED BY THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OVER THE AREA CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE FAST
MOTION AND RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE LOW, MOST SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR LINGERING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE KILBUCK MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. THOUGH SOME STRONGER WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA
THROUGH TONIGHT, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE LOW, AND MOST
CLOUDS CLEAR BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT LOW MOVES UP FROM THE PACIFIC AND CROSSES THE FAR WESTERN
ALEUTIAN CHAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL BE
STRONGER THAN THE FIRST LOW, HOWEVER IT TRACKS MUCH FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST. THE LOW REACHES ITS STRONGEST POINT NORTH OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES EMBEDDED IN THIS
SYSTEM AS IT ENTERS THE BERING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD,
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY
PEAK AT HURRICANE-FORCE IN THE WESTERN BERING MONDAY, WITH
SOUTHERLY STORM-FORCE WINDS SEEN THROUGH THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AND CENTRAL BERING AS THE LOW SENDS A FRONT EASTWARD. IN
ADDITION TO WINDS, RAIN WILL BE SEEN BOTH NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG
THE FRONT. THE FRONT STALLS ON A LINE FROM HOOPER BAY, TO THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS, TO ATKA, BRINGING CONTINUOUS RAIN TO THE AREA
UNDERNEATH. THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY'S SYSTEM, PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
BERING TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY LIMIT THE
ABILITY FOR FLOOD WATERS TO RECEDE QUICKLY FROM TODAY/MONDAY'S
SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL MAKE FOR A MOSTLY
CLEAR DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY. SOME
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES BRING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY. A LARGER UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE BERING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AND WILL
HELP PROGRESS THE FRONT EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
IT BREAKS DOWN HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE EAST.
WE ARE MONITORING THE PROGRESSION OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OF TROPICAL ORIGIN TO ENTER THE BERING SEA BY LATE THIS WEEK,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING ONSHORE FLOW AND RAINFALL TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
AGAIN BY THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT
WITH REGARDS TO ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, BUT
ASTRONOMICALLY DRIVEN TIDES WILL BE AT A NATURAL HIGH-END OF THEIR
CYCLE.
-CL
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA AS BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN, SHOWING A SERIES
OF UPPER-LEVEL LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND INTO MAINLAND
ALASKA. HOWEVER, DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING THE STRENGTH,
TIMING, AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES, PARTICULARLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY HAS A STRONG LOW, ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TYPHOON CHAMPI, MOVE INTO THE BERING. STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE
WINDS IMPACT THE ALEUTIANS FROM ATKA WEST AS THE LOW PUSHES
EASTWARD. BY THURSDAY EVENING, ONSHORE GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL PUSH INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST, LEADING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS. HIGHER TIDES AT THIS POINT
MEANS THAT THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WATER LEVELS.
THOUGH THE STORM TRACK IS UNCERTAIN, SO EXACT WATER LEVELS CANNOT
BE DETERMINED AT THIS POINT. FRIDAY IS MUCH OF THE SAME WITH THE
LOW MOVING FURTHER EAST, POTENTIALLY DRIVING CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. ELSEWHERE, PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS,
BERING SEA, AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED
TO BE MOSTLY RAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARMER.
SATURDAY SEES THE LOW PUSH INLAND AND QUICKLY WEAKEN. WINDS WILL
ALSO SWITCH DIRECTION BY THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL END THREATS OF
COASTAL FLOODING. RAINFALL WILL LINGER ON AND BECOME MORE SHOWERY
AND SCATTERED AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW,
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER LOW MOVES IN ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AND
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS LOW WITH MANY POSSIBILITIES REGARDING ITS
TRACK AND STRENGTH.
MEANWHILE, SOUTHCENTRAL SEES A FRONT MOVE IN ON THURSDAY, STALLING
ON A RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED RAINFALL
AND SNOWFALL AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND IN GAP AREAS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
-JAR/LM
AVIATION
PANC...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN THE AREA AFTER A TROUGH
PASSAGE EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT BY THIS EVENING FROM A SE
TURNAGAIN ARM WIND TO BROAD UP-INLET FLOW, INCREASING IN THE EVENING
HOURS. WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF 20KTS OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF MONDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING. DRY AIR IN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING, WITH GENERALLY JUST
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH.
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