216
FXAK68 PAFC 261332
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
532 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A FAST MOVING FRONT SWEPT ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST-TO-EAST, BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE PARENT LOW WITH THIS FRONT IS NEAR THE SEWARD
PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH KEEPS SOUTHCENTRAL IN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP SOME SNOW
UPSLOPING RIGHT ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND
COPPER BASIN THROUGH THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY WITH AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN
SUSITNA VALLEY AND LESS THAN 2 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN COPPER
BASIN.
BY TONIGHT, A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY AND AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REALLY JUMP WITH THIS RIDGE WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 0C ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA
TO KODIAK ISLAND IN THE 6C TO 8C RANGE. THIS WILL CREATE A STRONG
INVERSION WITH THESE TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE, THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG WILL EXIST FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
KEY MESSAGES:
* A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
(KIPNUK, TOKSOOK BAY, KWIGILLINGOK, AND KONGIGANAK) THROUGH 10
AM WEDNESDAY FOR AS PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS MAKE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR MINOR- MODERATE FLOODING.
* ACTIVE PATTERN OUT WEST CONTINUES AS MORE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE BERING.
DISCUSSION:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SEWARD
PENINSULA WITH A FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS
SYSTEM WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOUTHWESTERLY
GALE- FORCE WINDS (WITH HIGHER GUSTS) THROUGHOUT THE BERING INTO
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA YESTERDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS
PEAKING AT 60 MPH IN BETHEL. THESE WINDS ALSO BROUGHT SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA, WHERE WATERS PEAKED
AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
HAVE WEAKENED A BIT OVERNIGHT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATES. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS RAIN SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WITH LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE LOW
AND THE FRONT MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING, SHOWERS TAPER OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO LINGER
THROUGH THIS EVENING ARE HIGHEST IN THE KILBUCK MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE.
TO THE WEST, A STRONGER LOW IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF SHEMYA. RAIN
AND STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE FAR WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS SPREADING AS FAR EAST AS ADAK.
THE LOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD TODAY TO THE WESTERN BERING AS IT
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. SOME HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS MAY BE SEEN IN
THE FAR WESTERN BERING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
MOVES TOWARDS RUSSIA. THIS LOW SENDS A FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
BERING BEGINNING TODAY. RAIN AND SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL
BE SEEN ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH MOVES TO A LINE FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND
DOWN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT
STALLS TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN
ALASKA. PROLONGED GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
COAST THROUGHOUT THE EARLY WEEK. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY LIMIT THE
ABILITY FOR FLOOD WATERS TO RECEDE QUICKLY FROM TODAY/MONDAY'S
SYSTEM AND ALSO MAINTAINS POTENTIAL FOR WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE AT HIGH TIDES. BECAUSE OF
THIS, THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS LOOK TO BE UP TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE
THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING. THESE
PROLONGED WINDS MAY ALSO LIMIT DRAINAGE OF THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER,
THOUGH RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL IS LOW.
THE FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY IN THE EASTERN BERING UNTIL AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP
BREAK DOWN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE
EAST AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY, DUE TO THE TROUGH, A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY AND QUICKLY
MOVES NORTHWARD TO THE Y-K DELTA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS HELPS TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE EASTERN BERING TUESDAY NIGHT TO GALE-
FORCE (WITH HIGHER GUSTS) WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION TO WINDS, THE LOW BRINGS IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FOR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST TO THE REST OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS
TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY, HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHWEST AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA AS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS LOOK TO PERSIST.
ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE INFLUENCE OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE ARE
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
THE BERING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS FOR A STRONG FRONT TO REACH THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING INTO THURSDAY. RAIN AND
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS WEAKENING
TO GALE- FORCE BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. THE MAIN LOW THEN LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING
THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING WESTERLY STORM- FORCE WINDS TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE LOW LATER THIS WEEK, THERE IS
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING OF THE KUSKOKWIM COAST
WITH SYSTEM GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW AND THAT ASTRONOMICALLY DRIVEN
TIDES WILL BE AT A NATURAL HIGH- END OF THEIR CYCLE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
- PA
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA AS BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN, SHOWING A SERIES
OF UPPER-LEVEL LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND INTO MAINLAND
ALASKA. HOWEVER, DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING THE STRENGTH,
TIMING, AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES, PARTICULARLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY HAS A STRONG LOW, ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TYPHOON CHAMPI, MOVE INTO THE BERING. STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE
WINDS IMPACT THE ALEUTIANS FROM ATKA WEST AS THE LOW PUSHES
EASTWARD. BY THURSDAY EVENING, ONSHORE GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL PUSH INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST, LEADING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS. HIGHER TIDES AT THIS POINT
MEANS THAT THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WATER LEVELS.
THOUGH THE STORM TRACK IS UNCERTAIN, SO EXACT WATER LEVELS CANNOT
BE DETERMINED AT THIS POINT. FRIDAY IS MUCH OF THE SAME WITH THE
LOW MOVING FURTHER EAST, POTENTIALLY DRIVING CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. ELSEWHERE, PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS,
BERING SEA, AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED
TO BE MOSTLY RAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARMER.
SATURDAY SEES THE LOW PUSH INLAND AND QUICKLY WEAKEN. WINDS WILL
ALSO SWITCH DIRECTION BY THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL END THREATS OF
COASTAL FLOODING. RAINFALL WILL LINGER ON AND BECOME MORE SHOWERY
AND SCATTERED AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW,
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER LOW MOVES IN ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AND
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS LOW WITH MANY POSSIBILITIES REGARDING ITS
TRACK AND STRENGTH.
MEANWHILE, SOUTHCENTRAL SEES A FRONT MOVE IN ON THURSDAY, STALLING
ON A RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED RAINFALL
AND SNOWFALL AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND IN GAP AREAS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
-JAR/LM
AVIATION
PANC...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING, DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING VARIABLE. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL HOVER AT
OR BELOW 5000' THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
VICINITY FOG NEAR THE AIRPORT LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS TRANSITION TO
NORTHERLY.
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