173
FXAK69 PAFG 151224
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
324 AM AKST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, DROPPING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR,
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WARM SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BEFORE PLUMMETING AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR KEY MESSAGES...
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.
- EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED (LOCALLY COLDER THAN -25F)
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE FOR TODAY INTO
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOMEWHAT
WARMER TEMPS.
- A PATTERN SHIFT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SEA EFFECT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK WITH OPEN WATERS STILL LINGERING ON
THE CHUKCHI SEA.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
THROUGH SATURDAY, DROPPING AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS BETWEEN HOLY CROSS AND MCGRATH.
- SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP THIS WEEKEND OVER THE BERING
SEA WATERS AND THE Y-K DELTA AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY. SOME OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN SQUALLS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, WHILE
WEAK RIDGING LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
MAINLAND TODAY. A LOW SLOWLY MOVES OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY,
WHILE A MORE ROBUST UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA. LIGHT
SNOW SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA DROPS SOUTH INTO
GULF OF ALASKA. EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW, SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP THIS WEEKEND OVER THE BERING SEA WATERS AND
THE Y-K DELTA AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD CONTAIN SQUALLS. SOUTHERLY GAP FLOW WEAKENS IN THE ALASKA
RANGE PASSES THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY WITH MOST AREAS
SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE
POSITIVE SIDE OF ZERO.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC AND OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATER THIS WEEKEND, PUSHING A VERY COLD AIRMASS SOUTH
ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT, AS MUCH
OF THE AREA DROPS WELL BELOW ZERO. ACROSS THE ARCTIC PLAINS AND
SOUTH TO THE UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30 BELOW
RANGE, WITH 15 TO 25 BELOW COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE INTERIOR. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE EVEN COLDER AS THE 30 BELOW
LINE PUSHES SOUTH TO THE TANANA VALLEY AND EASTERN INTERIOR.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...BY TUESDAY, STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN RUSSIA PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS THE BERING AND
CHUKCHI SEAS AND TO THE WEST COAST. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD
IN MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS,
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM THE
BERING STRAIT COAST NORTH, WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS APPEARING MORE
LIKELY FROM KOTZEBUE TO POINT HOPE, AS WELL AS AT TIN CITY AND
WALES. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS, A SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH
SUBTROPIC ORIGINS PUSHES TO THE WEST COAST, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
PUSHES THE FRONT EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA, SPREADING SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM AS THE WESTERLY FLOW BRINGS
IN WARMER AIR.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ801-802-806-807-810-817-850-
853-854-856-858.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-806-807-816-817-850-851-853-854-
856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804-852.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ804-852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ805.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-812.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860.
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