201
FXAK69 PAFG 152212
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
112 PM AKST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND INTO THE GULF.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY AND VERY
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM A
BIT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT
OF SIBERIA AND INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY
STRONG ONSHORE WINDS FROM THE SEWARD PEN NORTHWARDS ALONG THE
NORTHWEST ARCTIC COASTLINE. IN ADDITION A BROAD BAND OF MODERATE
TO SOMETIMES HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL MOVE ONSHORE AS WELL INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE BERING COAST. THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL LATER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR KEY MESSAGES...
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED (LOCALLY COLDER THAN
-25F) EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE FOR TODAY INTO
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOMEWHAT
WARMER TEMPS.
- A PATTERN SHIFT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SEA EFFECT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK WITH OPEN WATERS STILL LINGERING ON
THE CHUKCHI SEA.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
THROUGH SATURDAY, DROPPING AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES, WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS BETWEEN HOLY CROSS AND MCGRATH.
- SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP THIS WEEKEND OVER THE BERING
SEA WATERS AND THE Y-K DELTA AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY. SOME OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN SQUALLS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK CLOSED CIRCULATION ALOFT OVER THE SEWARD
PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE
INTERIOR WILL RANGE FROM 2" TO 3" BY THE TIME THINGS WIND DOWN
SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH
INTO THE BERING SEA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, THUS ALLOWING
FOR THE TRANSPORT OF MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD. WHILE TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO PLUMMET SUNDAY EVENING, THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW THE COLDEST TEMPS TO BE REALIZED EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. READINGS COULD EVEN DROP TO -30F OVER PARTS OF THE TANANA
VALLEY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS START
TO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WHILE THEY ALL POINT TO THE SAME GENERAL TREND, DIFFERENCES
IN THE SPECIFIC POSITIONING AND SPEED OF SEVERAL KEY FEATURES
BECOME EVIDENT. AS SUCH WE HAVE DECIDED TO FAVOR ENSEMBLE MEANS
IN LIEU OF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT
FEATURES THAT WE WILL BE TRACKING IS A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING
OUT OF SIBERIA AND INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY
RAMP UP THE GRADIENT ALONG THE BERING COASTLINE AND GENERATE
STRONG SOUTHERLY ONSHORE WINDS. CURRENTLY IT SEEMS THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR FROM HOOPER BAY NORTH TO POINT HOPE, BUT THE
ENTIRE BERING COAST WILL SEE STRONG WINDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
PUSH A FRONT ASHORE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AND
POTENTIALLY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD BECOME FLATTENED A BIT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE
ARCTIC. THIS WILL BRING MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
PUSH THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802-810-817-850-853.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ801.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ802-816.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ804-852.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ805.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806-807-810-817-854-856-858.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-807.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ811.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ851.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ853.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860.
LANEY
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