578
FXAK69 PAFG 161135
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
235 AM AKST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND INTO THE GULF.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY AND VERY
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF SIBERIA AND INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING STRONG AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS FROM THE BERING
STRAIT COAST NORTHWARDS TO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST. MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STRONG WINDS, INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM THE BERING STRAIT COAST TO
POINT HOPE. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE
INTERIOR WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL LATER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR KEY MESSAGES...
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TODAY, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO
TODAY.
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO FALL.
- TEMPERATURES DROP TO 30 BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER
KOYUKUK VALLEY. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES DROP FURTHER SOUTH TO
THE TANANA VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS OF 25 TO 30 BELOW.
EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED (LOCALLY COLDER THAN -25F)
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 30 BELOW IN THE ARCTIC PLAINS AND
BROOKS RANGE. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH IN THE BROOKS RANGE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND
CHILLS NEAR 55 BELOW.
- A PATTERN SHIFT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SEA EFFECT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK WITH OPEN WATERS STILL LINGERING ON
THE CHUKCHI SEA.
- WEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP ALONG THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW,
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL PERSISTS TODAY TAPERING OFF TONIGHT,
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.
- SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP THIS WEEKEND OVER THE BERING
SEA WATERS AND THE Y-K DELTA AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY. SOME OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN SQUALLS.
- STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
MAY PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST TO
POINT HOPE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PREVAILS ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. A LOW
OVER NORTON SOUND THIS MORNING DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA SUNDAY, SPREADING SNOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY.
EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR TODAY. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW, SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL PICK UP THIS WEEKEND OVER THE BERING SEA WATERS AND THE Y-K
DELTA AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY, WITH SOME SHOWERS CONTAINING
SQUALLS. TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY WITH MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF
ZERO.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC AND DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES TO BE WEST OF BANKS ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON, PUSHING
COLD AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. VERY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30 BELOW RANGE OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS
TO THE UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY. THESE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH IN THE BROOKS RANGE
DROPPING WIND CHILL VALUES TO NEAR 55 BELOW. BY MONDAY NIGHT,
THESE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES DROP FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR 35 BELOW AT ARCTIC VILLAGE,
FORT YUKON, AND CHICKEN AND 25 TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE TANANA
VALLEY.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, STRONG RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OUT OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM NEAR AMCHITKA
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BEHIND THE
RIDGE, A LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH CHUKCHI SEA
COAST.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF
SPREAD IN MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WITH A LOW AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT THAT MOVES OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA AND ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE ALL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE SAME TREND,
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF SPREAD IN TRACK AND SPEED. THE 16/00Z RUNS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF STRENGTHENING THE RIDGE PUSHING NORTH OUT OF
THE NORTH PACIFIC, WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS PUSHING THE LOW FURTHER
NORTH. THE NORTHWARD TREND PUSHES PRECIP FURTHER NORTH, CUTTING
AMOUNTS FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH BY MORE THAN HALF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LIMIT PRECIP AT KOTZEBUE, LOWERING BLIZZARD
POTENTIAL THERE. NEVERTHELESS, STILL EXPECT STRONG WINDS NORTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE
CHUKCHI SEA COAST AND BERING STRAIT COAST. IN ADDITION, LOCALIZED
ICE SHOVES ARE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE NEW ICE STARTING TO FORM
ALONG THE NORTHERN KOTZEBUE SOUND. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD BECOME FLATTENED A BIT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE
ARCTIC. THIS WILL BRING MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
PUSH THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ801-814>817-820-821.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ801-850-853.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ802-806-807-816-817-851-854-
856.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-816-817-850-851-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810-811-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ852.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ853.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
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