093
FXAK69 PAFG 162356
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
256 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING FROM NOATAK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EASTERN INTERIOR GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF TONIGHT WITH
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND BUILDING RIDGING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER
STRETCH OF COLD TEMPERATURES (LOCALLY COLDER THAN -30F) AS RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NAEFS GUIDANCE ADVERTISES MSLP VALUES
ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR IMPLYING
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE THAT MAY SUPPORT TEMPERATURES BELOW
GUIDANCE. THIS RIDGING BUILDS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST
FROM SIBERIA ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGS STRONG
WINDS, MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW, AND POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
TO PORTIONS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND ARCTIC COAST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE'S ALSO GROWING CONFIDENCE IN A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE YK DELTA AND PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE KOTZEBUE SOUND AND AS FAR INLAND AS GALENA STARTING ON
TUESDAY. IMPRESSIVE RIDGING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA RESULTS IN
ZONAL FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL.
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
AROUND 1 INCH THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS OF 0F TO 10 BELOW TONIGHT.
- DRIER CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TURNING MUCH COLDER FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES DROP TO 30 BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER
KOYUKUK VALLEY. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES DROP FURTHER SOUTH TO THE
TANANA VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT.
- A WARM FRONT BRINGS RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- COLD TEMPERATURES (AROUND -30F) BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
TUESDAY ACROSS THE ARCTIC PLAINS AND BROOKS RANGE. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH IN THE BROOKS RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS NEAR 55 BELOW JUST BARELY
SHORT OF A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
- WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN SEA EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE CHUKCHI SEA AND
STRONGER WEST WINDS OF 30-40 MPH RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL
FOR BARTER ISLAND/KAKTOVIK JUSTIFYING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
- A STRONG WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF SNOW AND STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE CHUKCHI AND WESTERN ARCTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT JUSTIFIED ISSUANCE OF A BLIZZARD WATCH.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SEA EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF EMMONAK CONTINUE THRU
SUNDAY MORNING WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE TAPERING TO
FLURRIES SUNDAY EVENING. SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
- LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH AND TAPERS OFF TONIGHT WITH LESS
AROUND OR LESS THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.
- STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAY
RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST BETWEEN
THE SEWARD PENINSULA TO POINT HOPE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PREVAILS ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA TONIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO CANADA BY MONDAY. A LOW OVER NORTON SOUND
THIS MORNING DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY
SPREADING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE MORE PERSISTENT SEA-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
EMMONAK WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. IN FACT, NOME RADAR IS
SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED MESOLOW AT 23Z THAT IS LIKELY TO BRING
SQUALLY CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AROUND EMMONAK AROUND 3-4Z
THIS EVENING. BY SUNDAY EVENING, DRYING MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
BUILDING RIDGING RESULTS IN CLEARING SKIES AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC AND DEEPENS AS
IT TRACKS TO THE WEST OF BANKS ISLAND THIS WEEKEND, PUSHING COLD AIR
SOUTH ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A SUMMER-LIKE 580+ DM RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM NEAR AMCHITKA INTO
THE CHUKCHI SEA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE AXIS, MSLP >99TH
PERCENTILE OF CFSR CLIMATOLOGY RESULTS IN VERY COLD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. TEMPS AROUND 30 BELOW ARE FORECAST OVER THE ARCTIC
PLAINS TO THE UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH IN
THE BROOKS RANGE DROPPING WIND CHILL VALUES TO NEAR 55 BELOW. BY
MONDAY NIGHT, THESE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES DROP FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR 35 BELOW AT ARCTIC VILLAGE,
FORT YUKON, AND CHICKEN AND 25 TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE TANANA VALLEY.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS NORTH ACROSS
EASTERN SIBERIA AND OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS
LARGE, BUT THE LOW TRACK IS SUFFICIENTLY FAR NORTH AND THE TREND
CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER NORTH. THIS MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL
FOR THE SEWARD PENINSULA AS A STRONG WARM FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WEST
COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF QPF/SNOWFALL,
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SIGNAL POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG
THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST AND BERING STRAIT COAST. IN ADDITION,
LOCALIZED ICE SHOVES ARE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE NEW ICE STARTING TO
FORM ALONG THE NORTHERN KOTZEBUE SOUND. ACROSS THE YK DELTA REGION,
BUFKIT INDICATES A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SATURATION WITH THE FROPA
THEN SHALLOW SATURATION BENEATH THE DGZ/DRY SLOT IMPLYING FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. ECMWF P-TYPE METEOGRAMS FURTHER SUPPORT THIS
POTENTIAL AND EVEN IF SURFACE TEMPS CREEP ABOVE FREEZING, FROZEN
SOILS SHOULD PROLONG THE SURFACE ICING POTENTIAL. FURTHER INTO THE
INTERIOR THE WARM FROPA MAY BE COMPLETELY DRY WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE WED OR THU.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...NAEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS MAXING OUT CFSR CLIMATOLOGY IN THE VICINITY OF BRISTOL BAY
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. NORTH OF THE RIDGE, SEASONABLY STRONG ZONAL
FLOW ADVECTS A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA AND
SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. PRECIP TYPES MAY
BECOME COMPLICATED, BUT THOSE ARE DETAILS THAT CAN BE SORTED OUT
LATER. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BECOME FLATTENED A BIT AS
AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ARCTIC. THIS WILL BRING MORE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL PUSH THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING
SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY GRADUALLY VEER MORE
WESTERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY GUIDANCE
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR WATER LEVELS ABOVE THE HIGHEST TIDE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ801-814>817-820-821.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ805.
PK...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ801-802-806-807-816-817-850-
852>854-856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801-850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-806-807-816-817-851-856.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ804.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ805.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ853.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
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