011
FXAK69 PAFG 171207
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
307 AM AKST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY AND
MONDAY AS DRY AND VERY COLD AIR PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BUILDING RIDGING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES OF 20 TO 30 BELOW, WITH THE
WELL KNOWN COLD SPOTS OF CHICKEN AND FORT YUKON NEAR 40 BELOW. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF SIBERIA AND ACROSS THE
CHUKCHI SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING STRONG AND GUSTY ONSHORE
WINDS, MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW, AND POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND ARCTIC COAST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE'S ALSO GROWING
CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE Y-K DELTA AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE SEWARD
PENINSULA AND AS FAR INLAND AS GALENA STARTING ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR KEY MESSAGES...
- DRIER CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TURNING MUCH COLDER FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES DROP TO 30 BELOW TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER KOYUKUK
VALLEY. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES DROP FURTHER SOUTH TO THE TANANA
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT.
- MODERATE NORTH WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW, REDUCING VISIBILITY TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES, SUPPORTING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
- A FRONT BRINGS RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- COLD TEMPERATURES (AROUND -30F) BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
TUESDAY ACROSS THE ARCTIC PLAINS AND BROOKS RANGE. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH IN THE BROOKS RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS NEAR 55 BELOW JUST
BARELY SHORT OF A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
- WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE
IN SEA EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE CHUKCHI SEA AND
STRONGER WEST WINDS OF 30-40 MPH RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR BARTER ISLAND/KAKTOVIK JUSTIFYING A BLIZZARD
WARNING.
- A STRONG WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF SNOW AND STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE CHUKCHI AND WESTERN ARCTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, JUSTIFYING BLIZZARD WATCHES.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SEA EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF EMMONAK CONTINUE
TODAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN INCH TO INCH OF SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES THIS EVENING.
- STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAY
RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST
BETWEEN THE SEWARD PENINSULA TO POINT HOPE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH TO THE Y-K DELTA AND EAST
TOWARDS THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY, A MIX OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PREVAILS ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. A LOW
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW TAPERS OFF ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN Y-K DELTA WHERE SEA-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE. BY THIS EVENING THROUGH, DRYING MID-LEVELS
COMBINED WITH BUILDING RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR AS
WINDS TURN NORTHERLY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF BANKS ISLAND TODAY CONTINUES TO PUSH
COLD AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE
STRONG RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM NEAR AMCHITKA THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT
AND INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY AFTERNOON. VERY COLD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
30 BELOW RANGE OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS TO THE UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY
TONIGHT. THESE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH IN THE BROOKS RANGE DROPPING WIND
CHILL VALUES TO NEAR 55 BELOW. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THESE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES DROP FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 BELOW AT ARCTIC FORT YUKON AND CHICKEN AND 25
TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE TANANA VALLEY.
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS NORTH ACROSS EASTERN SIBERIA AND OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA, MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO
BE LARGE, BUT THE LOW TRACK IS SUFFICIENTLY FAR NORTH AND THE
TREND CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER NORTH. THIS MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
SNOWFALL FOR THE SEWARD PENINSULA AS A STRONG WARM FRONT SHIFTS
OVER THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG THE BERING STRAIT AND CHUKCHI SEA
COASTS, WHICH COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW CONTINUE TO SIGNAL
POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION, LOCALIZED ICE SHOVES
ARE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE NEW ICE STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
NORTHERN KOTZEBUE SOUND. FROM ST LAWRENCE ISLAND EAST TO THE LOWER
YUKON VALLEY AND SOUTH TO THE Y-K DELTA THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR THE FRONT MAY BE
COMPLETELY DRY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THE COLD FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF
SPREAD IN MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WITH A LOW AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT THAT MOVES OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA AND ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE ALL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE SAME TREND,
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF SPREAD IN TRACK AND SPEED. THE 17/00Z RUNS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF STRENGTHENING THE RIDGE PUSHING NORTH OUT
OF THE NORTH PACIFIC, WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS PUSHING THE LOW FURTHER
NORTH. THE NORTHWARD TREND PUSHES PRECIP FURTHER NORTH, CUTTING
AMOUNTS FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH BY MORE THAN HALF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LIMIT PRECIP AT KOTZEBUE, LOWERING BLIZZARD
POTENTIAL THERE. NEVERTHELESS, STILL EXPECT STRONG WINDS NORTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE
CHUKCHI SEA COAST AND BERING STRAIT COAST. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD BECOME FLATTENED A BIT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
OVER THE ARCTIC. THIS WILL BRING MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
THAT WILL PUSH THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
FROM POINT HOPE EAST TO UTQIAGVIK. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED WATER AND BEACH EROSION ALONG THE COAST. AT
THIS TIME, THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
DETAILS.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ801-814>817-820-821.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ848-850.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ805.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ801-806-807-816-817-850-853-
854-856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ802-850.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-816-851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814-815-860-861.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ817.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ851.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ852.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ853-854.
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