478
FXAK69 PAFG 181518
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
618 AM AKST MON NOV 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH NUMEROUS ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING EAST FROM A
STORM IN SIBERIA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST LATE TONIGHT,
BRINGING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, HIGH WINDS, HEAVY SNOW, AND
EVENTUALLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. THE
NORTH SLOPE WILL ALSO SEE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE INTERIOR WILL BE QUIETER,
THOUGH BREEZY WINDS DRAINING COLD AIR THROUGH PASSES AND GAPS HAVE
A VARIETY OF WIND AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT.
KEY MESSAGES...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- STRATUS CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO.
- A FEW AREAS IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW FOR HIGHS TODAY.
- MODERATE NORTH WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW, REDUCING VISIBILITY TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES, SUPPORTING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
- A FRONT BRINGS RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE TANANA VALLEY. UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH, AND THIS FORECAST
WILL BE REFINED TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- SOUTHEAST WINDS AT EAGLE WILL GUST TO 40 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 45 BELOW ZERO.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH BROOKS RANGE PASSES WILL
LIGHTEN TODAY, BRINGING WIND CHILLS UP FROM NEAR 50 BELOW THIS
MORNING.
- WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG THE COAST RESULTING
IN AN INCREASE IN SEA EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND STRONGER WEST WINDS OF 30-40 MPH WILL RESULT IN
BLOWING SNOW FOR BARTER ISLAND/KAKTOVIK, JUSTIFYING A BLIZZARD
WARNING.
- A STRONG WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF SNOW AND STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE CHUKCHI AND ARCTIC COASTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A BLIZZARD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN
ARCTIC COAST AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE REST OF THE
ARCTIC COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH TO THE Y-K DELTA AND EAST
TOWARDS THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY, A MIX OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A GLAZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA, THEREFORE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE BERING STRAIT,
KOTZEBUE SOUND, AND NORTH TO POINT HOPE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
- FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR NOME AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE INHERITED FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND WE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES.
THE CHANGES WE DID MAKE WERE TO ADJUST SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRATUS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXPECT
THIS TO SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WE ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS AT EAGLE TO INCLUDE ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS WITH THE DOWNVALLEY WIND EVENT EXPECTED THERE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE YUKON.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN. WE WERE ABLE
TO INCORPORATE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INTO THE WIND FORECAST AS
A RESULT.
EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE AND BRING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
AREA. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BEFORE A SHORTWAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. MODELS DIVERGE THEREAFTER, BUT GENERALLY
INDICATE CONTINUED RIDGING, WHICH WILL BRING STRONG INVERSIONS TO
THE INTERIOR AND PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION, POSSIBLY MIXED, TO THE
WEST COAST.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS DEVELOP INTO TUESDAY AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY FROM POINT
HOPE EAST TO UTQIAGVIK. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED WATER AND BEACH EROSION ALONG THE COAST. AT THIS
TIME, THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
DETAILS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA. THIS WILL BRING HIGH SURF TO KIVALINA AND
RED DOG DOCK WITH WATER LEVELS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH
TIDE LINE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ801-815-817-820-821.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ802>804.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ848-850.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ814-816.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ815.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ822.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ835.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ805.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-852.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-850-853.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ802-807-852-853-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-805-808.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806-807-810-817-856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ809-812-855-858.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ811-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ815.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851-854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ861.
CHRIEST
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