686
FXAK69 PAFG 191351
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
451 AM AKST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN IMPACTFUL AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA WITH HAZARDS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG
WINDS, HEAVY SNOW, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, AND MIXED PRECIPITATION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ARRIVING AT THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT AND TO THE ARCTIC
COAST WEST OF UTQIAGVIK. THE TRAILING WARM FRONT IS ONLY 6 TO 9
HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL TURN SNOW INTO A MIX OF SNOW,
RAIN, AND FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF
KIVALINA LATER TODAY. THE FRONTS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
INTERIOR, THOUGH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
TANANA VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING WILL
WARM RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE TANANA VALLEY, HOWEVER, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON
IF PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE. WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- SOUTHEAST WINDS AT EAGLE WILL GUST TO 40 MPH WITH WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS 45 BELOW ZERO. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER EAGLE SUMMIT WILL GUST TO 45 MPH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING BLOWING SNOW AND
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- MULTIPLE BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE OVER TO THE NW ARCTIC COAST WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO 75 MPH, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 7 INCHES, AND BLOWING
SNOW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NOATAK VALLEY
AND LOWER KOBUK VALLEY WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 10 INCHES,
ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A LIGHT GLAZE, WIND GUSTS UP TO 50MPH,
AND BLOWING SNOW.
- HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE,
PRIMARILY FOR ANAKTUVUK PASS WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS UP TO
40MPH AND WINDS GUSTS UP TO 65MPH EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- MINOR COASTAL EROSION IS POSSIBLE WEST OF UTQIAGVIK TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS CAUSING SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- MULTIPLE BLIZZARD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM POINT
HOPE SOUTHWARD TO KOTZEBUE SOUND TO THE BERING STRAIT COAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH, SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 6 INCHES, AND BLOWING SNOW. MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN RESULTING IN A LIGHT ICE
GLAZE ALONG THE BERING STRAIT AND SEWARD PENINSULA COAST ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM KIVALINA AND RED
DOG WITH MINOR COASTAL EROSION EXPECTED WITH WATER LEVELS
REACHING UP TO 2 TO 4FT ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND YUKON DELTA, MULTIPLE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO 4 INCHES, ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A LIGHT GLAZE AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH.
- ELEVATED WATER AND MINOR COASTAL EROSION, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE MOVING UP ONTO THE BEACH TODAY AND TONIGHT
MAINLY NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER INTERIOR
ALASKA, CENTERED JUST NORTH OF DAWSON CITY, YUKON AT 1044 MB.
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH, THIS ONE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS, LIES OVER
NIKOLSKI AT 1042 MB. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED AROUND
THIS HIGH, WITH INTERIOR ALASKA UNDER COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A 990 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR WRANGEL
ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST AND
ALONG WITH WEST COAST NORTH OF THE YUKON DELTA. THE WARM FRONT FOR
THIS SYSTEM TRAILS BY ONLY 6-9 HOURS AND WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER, BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST COAST
AND EVENTUALLY THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
INTERIOR. WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE QUITE STRONG, MOSTLY
GALE FORCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE WEST COAST AND NORTH SLOPE WITH
LOCALIZED STORM FORCE WINDS. CAPE LISBURNE HAS GUSTED AS HIGH AS
87 MPH SO FAR THIS MORNING.
BOTH THE COLD AND THE WARM FRONTS WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
THEY MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PLOW INTO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
BY THURSDAY, THE REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
INTERIOR, TURNING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BACK TO SNOW. THE RIDGE
ALOFT BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST ALL OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
WE MADE MINOR EDITS IN THE FORECAST ON WINDS TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS ON PRECIPITATION TYPES. WE ADJUSTED SOME
PRECIP TYPES BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE TANANA VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO FOR ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND IN EFFECT THROUGH
1PM WEDNESDAY AND CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THROUGH
ALASKA RANGE PASSES AS CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED THERE, THOUGH IT
REMAINS BREEZY FROM THE NORTH.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS DEVELOP TUESDAY AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WEST
COAST AND NORTH TO UTQIAGVIK. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
WATER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION MAINLY NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR KIVALINA AND RED DOG DOCK.
EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE AND BRING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
WILL ATTEMPT TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE IS LOOKING TO BE MORE AND MORE SUCCESSFUL
WITH EACH MODEL RUN AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD ADDITIONAL MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND SNOW TO THE
INTERIOR ON SUNDAY. MODELS DIVERGE THEREAFTER, BUT GENERALLY
INDICATE CONTINUED RIDGING WHICH WILL BRING STRONG INVERSIONS TO
THE INTERIOR. MINOR PERTURBATIONS WORKING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY
FOR THE NORTH SLOPE AND WEST COAST.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ801-806-807-815-817-820-821.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ802-803.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ814-816.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ815.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ818-823>826.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ819-828>830.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ822.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ827.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ804.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ835.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ809.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802-850-853.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ802-807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-805.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ804-852.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ807-817-854-856-858.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ808-855.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ809.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ810.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ811-857.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ812.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-814-860.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ852.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ853.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ859.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ861.
CHRIEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page