483
FXAK69 PAFG 192310
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
210 PM AKST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS WORK THEIR
WAY ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
WEST COAST WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE BERING
STRAIT AND ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST EAST TO UTQIAGVIK. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, A WARM FRONT IS SHIFTING PRECIP INTO A MIX OF SNOW,
RAIN, AND FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF
KIVALINA. AS THE FRONT PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR THEY WILL
WEAKEN. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE TANANA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE TANANA VALLEY, HOWEVER, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON
IF PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE. WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- SOUTHEAST WINDS AT EAGLE WILL GUST TO 40 MPH WITH WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS 45 BELOW ZERO. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER EAGLE SUMMIT WILL GUSTS TO 45 MPH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES. AS SUCH, HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST OF UTQIAGVIK TO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC
COAST AND TO THE NORTH CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH
ACCOMPANYING SNOW HAVE DROPPED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW TO A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS. BLIZZARD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- A BLIZZARD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BEAUFORT
SEA COASTS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS WEST
WINDS INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND FALLING SNOW WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
- SOUTH WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN
THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE (IN PARTICULAR ANAKTUVUK PASS) THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE LIKELY, BUT EXPECT
VISIBILITY TO REMAIN ABOVE HALF A MILE. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT.
- MINOR COASTAL EROSION IS POSSIBLE WEST OF UTQIAGVIK TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS CAUSING SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- BLIZZARD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM POINT HOPE SOUTH TO
KOTZEBUE SOUND AND TO THE BERING STRAIT COAST INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH (STRONGEST NEAR KIVALINA AND RED DOG DOCK),
BLOWING SNOW, AND ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN RESULTING A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE ALONG THE BERING STRAIT AND SEWARD PENINSULA COAST
INTO WEDNESDAY.
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NOATAK VALLEY AND
LOWER KOBUK VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 7
INCHES, ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A LIGHT GLAZE, WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH, AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
- FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND YUKON DELTA, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES, ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A LIGHT GLAZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
- A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM KIVALINA, RED DOG DOCK,
AND SHISHMAREF, WITH MINOR COASTAL EROSION EXPECTED WITH WATER
LEVELS REACHING UP TO 2 TO 4FT ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE
STARTING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- ELEVATED WATER AND MINOR COASTAL EROSION, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE MOVING UP ONTO THE BEACH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MAINLY NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD TO BE CENTERED OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN DROPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN SIBERIA AND
ACROSS THE ARCTIC WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL
TRACKS EAST NORTHEAST IT DRAGS A SERIES OF FRONTS EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
INTERIOR, CENTERED NEAR DAWSON CITY AT 1048 MB. A 986 MB LOW IS
NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS A WARM
FRONT STRETCHING THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO NUNIVAK ISLAND.
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACCOMPANY THESE FRONTS, PRODUCING
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. AS THE WARM FRONT MARCHES EAST, IT WILL
BRING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR AND EVENTUALLY THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR. THESE FRONTS WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS THEY
TRACK ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES
TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BY THURSDAY, THE WEAKENING FRONT
WILL MOVE OVER THE INTERIOR, SHIFTING PRECIP BACK TO SNOW. THE
RIDGE ALOFT BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST ALL OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...THE AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN
PERSISTS MAINTAINING ACTIVE WEATHER. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING TO THE SEWARD
PENINSULA SATURDAY, PUSHING THE RIDGE SOUTH AND WEAKENING IT. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD A MIX OF PRECIP TO THE WEST COAST SATURDAY
AND INTO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY. A STEADY STREAM OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
ROTATES THROUGH THE FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ801-806-807-815-817-820-821.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ802-803.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ814-816.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ815-820.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ818-823>826.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ819-827>830.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ822.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ804.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ834.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ835.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ805.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ809.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-804.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ805-808.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-850-852-853.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ807-810-854-856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ809.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ811-812-857.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ813.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ814-860.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ815-861.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ817.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ852.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ855.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ858.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ859.
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