567
FXAK69 PAFG 211301
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
401 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING AFTER 3 FRONTAL PASSAGES
ACROSS THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MOISTURE IS TRAPPED AT
THE SURFACE, PARTICULARLY ALONG A LINE FROM NOME TO GALENA TO
FAIRBANKS BENEATH A DECAYING COLD FRONT, MAKING FREEZING DRIZZLE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH TODAY. A NUMBER OF WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE
ACCUMULATION. VERY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WILL PUSH REMAINING MOISTURE SOUTH, THOUGH AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THERE. THE ARCTIC COAST WILL
CLEAR TODAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE WEST COAST BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY
AND PUSHING INTO THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE TANANA VALLEY. REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN ISOLATED AND TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT IN
LOCALIZED AREAS AS A RESULT. WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
- SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 40 MPH AT EAGLE AND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- ABOUT 1 INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE TANANA VALLEY THROUGH
TODAY.
- WIND AND BLOWING SNOW OVER EAGLE SUMMIT WILL DIMINISH AFTER NOON
TODAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL THEN.
- NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ALASKA RANGE
PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- DRY, MILD, AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- WEST WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
DIMINISH TODAY.
- QUIETER AND COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH EAST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING ALONG THE COAST.
- PERIODS OF CLEARING TODAY AND FRIDAY, EVEN ALONG THE COAST.
- NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH BROOKS RANGE PASSES EASE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR NOME, GOLOVIN, AND EASTERN NORTON
SOUND REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM THURSDAY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MANY AREAS NEAR THE COAST SEEING HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE
WEST COAST BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AND PUSHING INTO THE INTERIOR
ON SUNDAY.
- STRONG NORTHERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA, TRAPPING
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM MULTIPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES YESTERDAY AT OR
NEAR THE SURFACE. A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED
OVER BRISTOL BAY WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERS NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND DAWSON CITY, YUKON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY, CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAINLY ALONG THE LINE OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM NOME TO
GALENA TO FAIRBANKS. BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING, VERY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. THIS WILL PUSH REMAINING
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE, THOUGH AREAS OF FOG AND
STRATUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS QUIET AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT THE WEST
COAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FORECAST CHANGES TONIGHT WERE MINOR. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAGLE SUMMIT FOR BLOWING SNOW AND LOW
VISIBILITY THROUGH NOON TODAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6AM THIS MORNING,
BUT ANTICIPATE THAT SHOULD NOT NEED TO BE EXTENDED. OTHERWISE,
JUST UPDATED THE NEAR TERM FOR FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE IT
IS BEING REPORTED. DELAYED THE TIMING OF THE SATURDAY-TUESDAY
SHORTWAVE IN THE POP AND WIND FIELDS BY ABOUT 6 HOURS TO ALIGN
WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL START WITH A MOISTURE LADEN
SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WEST OF A LINE FROM
FAIRBANKS TO DEADHORSE. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRING UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW TO PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW
AMOUNTS, AND THAT FORECAST WILL BE REFINED AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE STATE
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, BRINGING STRONG INVERSIONS TO THE INTERIOR
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ829-830-834-839>846-852.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ822-824.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ835.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ805.
PK...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ812.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-859.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815-861.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ856.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860.
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