622
FXAK69 PAFG 142308
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
208 PM AKST SAT DEC 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
THE COLD AIR IS HERE, BUT NOT FOR LONG. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM
OUT TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A WARM-UP TO COME NEXT
WEEK. WE'LL BE MONITORING LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY BUT OTHER
THAN THAT, GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN ALASKA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW LINGERING NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE, ESPECIALLY
AROUND NORTHWAY. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. 1-3
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED.
- VERY COLD WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH LOWS
DIPPING TO -40 TO -50F FROM FORT YUKON TO CHICKEN. EXPECT -20 TO
-40F ELSEWHERE WITH FAIRBANKS NEAR -30 TO -40F.
- THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS WIND, IF THERE IS ANY WIND, TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE, HOWEVER, WITH CALM CONDITIONS FOR EVEN AN HOUR,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.
- PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN AK RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY SNOW BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
- ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE PARKS HIGHWAY SOUTH OF TRIMS CAMP MAY
BE UPWARDS OF 12 INCHES OR MORE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT.
- SOUTH OF DENALI PARK ALONG THE PARKS HIGHWAY, NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE RESULTING IN BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILTY TO 1/2 MILE AT
TIMES.
- THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN FAIRBANKS AND THE
EASTERN INTERIOR MONDAY MORNING - EVENING. THIS IS RELATIVELY
LOW CONFIDENCE BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
INCHES IN FAIRBANKS AND SEVERAL INCHES IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER BUT MUCH COLDER.
-LIGHT SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND TO THE WEST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
- IN GENERAL, 1-3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FROM THE WESTERN AK RANGE TO
SELAWIK SOUTH/WEST.
- AFTERWARDS, THINGS DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS WESTERN
ALASKA WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE YK DELTA, WESTERN SEWARD
PENINSULA AND ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL BE THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A BIG BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20F RANGE ALONG
THE COAST WITH -20 TO -35F IN INLAND AREAS.
ANALYSIS AND CONFIDENCE...
A DRY, COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SETTLING OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR, BUT
IT IS DEPENDENT ON WIND SPEEDS, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, THIS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
THE AK RANGE ON SUNDAY AND PULLS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE AK RANGE BRINGING HEAVY
SNOW TO THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY SOUTH OF TRIMS CAMP. SUNDAY NIGHT,
THIS LOW WILL BRING MOISTURE AROUND THE AK RANGE WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO
PLACES LIKE CHICKEN AND EAGLE, BUT CONFIDENCE AS OF NOW IS LOW-
MODERATE. IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER, BUT HIGH
RATIO SNOW, FLUFFY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH AT LEAST
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. THIS LOW THEN MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR ON MONDAY, PULLING MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC AND PROVIDES LIGHT, FLUFFY SNOW TO MUCH OF THE WEST COAST
AND WESTERN INTERIOR BY MONDAY NIGHT. FROM THIS POINT FORWARD,
TEMPERATURES WILL ON THE RISE AND THE WEATHER QUIETS DOWN WITH
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF IN THE EXTENDED BESIDES THE WARM UP TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIGHT IF THERE IS ANY AND THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER, EVEN THOSE CHANCES ARE LOW AS IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ850.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ833-838-840-843-844.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ834-838-842.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR AKZ834-835.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ836.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ848.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ801-850.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ802.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ803-817-850.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ804-816-852>854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ804-807-809-811-812-815-
853>858.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ805-806.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ807.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ808-810-855.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ809.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ810.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ817.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ859.
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