480
FXAK69 PAFG 151430
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
530 AM AKST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR THIS MORNING WILL MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTH OVER THE ALASKA RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT BRINGING HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE
RICHARDSON HIGHWAY SOUTH OF TRIMS CAMP AND LIGHT SNOW TO THE REST
OF THE INTERIOR. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW QUICK INCHES OF
FLUFFY SNOW ACROSS FAIRBANKS NORTH STAR BOROUGH, PARTICULARLY IN
THE HILLS WEST OF FAIRBANKS LATE TONIGHT. THE WEST COAST WILL SEE
LIGHT SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING.
QUIET AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON THE NORTH SLOPE
WITH WINDS ALONG THE COAST REMAINING 15 TO 25 MPH FROM THE EAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE -30S AND -40S OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MODERATE TODAY AS WARMER AIR
MOVES BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
- PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN AK RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY SNOW LIKELY.
- ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY SOUTH OF TRIMS CAMP
MAY BE UPWARDS OF 12 INCHES OR MORE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT.
- SNOW IS LIKELY IN FAIRBANKS AND THE EASTERN INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE
UPPER TANANA VALLEY WITH AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED, THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE HILLS WEST OF
FAIRBANKS TO SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF HIGH RATIO (VERY
FLUFFY) SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH.
- EXPECT A STRONG AND PERSISTENT TANANA VALLEY JET WITH EAST WINDS
NEAR DELTA JUNCTION SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH BEGINNING TUESDAY
MORNING.
- GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER BUT MUCH COLDER.
- WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY AND STRONG ALONG THE COAST, BUT A CRUSTED
OVER SNOWPACK WILL MINIMIZE ANY BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS.
- LIGHT SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY EVENING
AND TO THE WEST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
- IN GENERAL, 1-3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FROM THE WESTERN AK RANGE TO
SELAWIK SOUTH/WEST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
- WITH EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING SNOW DURING AND AFTER THIS SNOW EVENT.
- AFTERWARDS, THINGS DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS WESTERN
ALASKA WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE YK DELTA, WESTERN SEWARD
PENINSULA AND ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL BE THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A BIG BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH.
- EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20F RANGE ALONG
THE COAST WITH -20 TO -35F IN INLAND AREAS FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
ANALYSIS AND CONFIDENCE...A DYNAMIC PATTERN WITH MANY STRONG
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES IS IN PLACE OVER ALASKA RIGHT NOW AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK. NOTABLE PLAYERS ARE A 1040 MB HIGH
IN THE CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA, A 935 MB LOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN
ALEUTIANS, AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.
SOUTHWEST OF THIS LOW IS A DEEP AREA OF MOISTURE THAT WILL SWING
BACK THROUGH THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A
STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND TO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT ON MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA BEING
ADVECTED NORTH AS A FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION
TO THE WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW AROUND 0.5" OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT FALLING OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AS THIS MOVES
THROUGH. GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE FLUFFY SNOW, SOME AREAS COULD SEE
UPWARDS OF 12 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FAIRBANKS, MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A SHORT BURST OF
SNOWFALL EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN 1
INCH, BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HILLS WEST OF FAIRBANKS.
THIS SNOW WOULD ALSO BE QUITE FLUFFY. OTHER AREAS OF THE UPPER
TANANA VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES AS
WELL. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWEST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW,
BRINGING LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS THE LOW ALOFT WEAKENS. BY
TUESDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE IS BACK IN PLACE OVER THE WHOLE
AREA WITH QUIET WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, WE INCREASED THE POPS IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WE ALSO INCREASED WINDS NEAR DELTA JUNCTION
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF THE TANANA VALLEY
JET WINDS. ALSO CANCELLED A COUPLE OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR BLOWING SNOW IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS WINDS ARE DIMINISHING.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF IN THE EXTENDED
BESIDES THE WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IF THERE IS
ANY AND THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ON THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER,
EVEN THOSE CHANCES ARE LOW AS IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ850.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ833-838-840-843-844.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR AKZ834-835.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ801>803-816-817-850-851-853-
854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ802.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ803-850-852.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ804-806.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ805-817-853-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-811-812-857-858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ855.
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