454
FXAK69 PAFG 152306
AFDAFG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
206 PM AKST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A ~520 DM ARCTIC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER FAIRBANKS
SHIFTS WEST TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY MONDAY MORNING. A MOIST AIR
MASS SOUTH OF THIS LOW PRESSURE HAS ALLOWED FOR STEADY SNOW IN THE
UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR
THE ADJACENT MOUNTAINS. AS THE LOW TRACK WEST, THIS MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL SHIFTS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AK RANGE INTO THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR TONIGHT THEN TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR, SEWARD PEN,
AND KOTZEBUE SOUND AREA ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE AREA BETWEEN
MCGRATH, ANVIK, AND HUSLIA INCLUDING THE NULATO HILLS IS EXPECTED TO
SEE QPF >0.1" WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN THAT ELSEWHERE (AROUND 0.05"
FOR FAIRBANKS). THE COLD ANTECEDENT AIR MASS AND DEEP DGZ SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS THAT COULD FLUFF UP THE QPF TO
1-5" OF SNOWFALL. HOWEVER, THERE'S A MODEST TANANA VALLEY JET
INTERSECTING THE DGZ THAT MAY FRACTURE DENDRITES AND LOWER SLRS SO
MOST PLACES SHOULD PICK UP LESS THAN 2 INCHES. OTHER THAN SNOW
CHANCES, EAST WINDS GUSTING TO ABOUT 30-35 KTS CONTINUE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST AND NORTH SLOPE. THE WEST COAST WAS VERY
WARM AND THE NORTH SLOPE HAD VERY STRONG WINDS LAST WEEK SO BLOWING
SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE SNOW ON MONDAY.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE -30S OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TODAY MODERATE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR THE YUKON FLATS.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL -LOCALLY OVER 12 INCHES- IS EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE EASTERN AK RANGE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS INCLUDES THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY SOUTH OF TRIMS CAMP
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM MONDAY.
- A BURST OF FLUFFY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN FAIRBANKS AND THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH MOST PLACES GETTING
AROUND AN INCH. AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPPER
TANANA VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING.
- EXPECT A PERSISTENT TANANA VALLEY JET BEGINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
MAY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH EAST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH
AT DELTA JUNCTION.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER BUT MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 0F AND HIGHS
IN THE TEENS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- GUSTY EAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST, BUT AN ICY SNOWPACK
MINIMIZES ANY BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL UNTIL 1-3 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW
FALLS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN THEN, IMPACTS APPEAR LOW.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
WITH A STRONGER PUSH OF WARMTH LATE THIS WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A BIG BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH.
- EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST WITH A PERIOD OF
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20F RANGE ALONG THE
COAST WITH -20 TO -35F IN INLAND AREAS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
DISCUSSION
ANALYSIS AND CONFIDENCE...A DYNAMIC REGIONAL PATTERN WITH SEVERAL
STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES PERSISTS THROUGH THIS WEEK. NOTABLE
PLAYERS ARE A 1040 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA, A 942 MB
LOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS, AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. DEEP MOISTURE PIVOTS BACK INTO THE
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS WEST. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO
ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND TO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE SURGING NORTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
SPREADS LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT
THEN TO THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW AROUND
0.5" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT FALLING OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AS
THIS MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE FLUFFY SNOW, SOME AREAS
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 12 INCHES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FAIRBANKS, MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A SHORT BURST OF
SNOWFALL EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN 1
INCH, BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HILLS WEST OF FAIRBANKS.
OTHER AREAS OF THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY COULD
SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWEST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, BRINGING
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS THE LOW ALOFT WEAKENS. BY TUESDAY
MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE IS BACK IN PLACE OVER THE WHOLE AREA WITH
QUIET WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IF THERE
IS ANY AND THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE YK DELTA REGION.
THERE'S DECENT ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THAT A NOTEWORTHY WARM FRONT
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE PIVOTING ACROSS
THE AK PENINSULA. AT THIS TIME, THE MOST NOTEWORTHY CHANGE WILL BE
MUCH WARMER TEMPS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS FOR
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ850.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ801>803-816-817-850-851-853-
854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ802.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ803-850-852.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ804-806.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ805-817-853-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-811-812-857-858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ855.
EK
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