233
FXAK69 PAFG 161533
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
633 AM AKST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT IS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST THROUGH THE
DAY, ARRIVING AT THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WITH
FALLING SNOW ON TOP OF AN ICY SNOWPACK, HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KOTZEBUE FOR BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITY
FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES FROM
DEADHORSE EAST ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THERE. HEAVY SNOW TAPERS
OFF THIS MORNING ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY IN THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE. AFTER SNOW EXITS THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VERY QUIET WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF THE EASTERN AK RANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INCLUDES
THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY SOUTH OF TRIMS CAMP WHERE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM MONDAY. STORM TOTALS
MAY EXCEED 12 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
- TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY WARMING TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE ZERO TODAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SNOW AND CLOUD COVER.
- A PERSISTENT TANANA VALLEY JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH EAST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH AT DELTA JUNCTION. A
QUICK REPRIEVE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP BACK UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER BUT MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 0F AND
HIGHS IN THE TEENS THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- GUSTY EAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
- 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THIS SNOW WILL LIKELY BLOW AND DRIFT ALONG THE COAST WHERE
EAST WINDS CONTINUE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
KOTZEBUE FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR LOW
VISIBILITY AS SNOW FROM THE FRONT PUSHES THOUGH ALONG WITH
STRONG EAST WINDS.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEK WITH A STRONGER PUSH OF WARMTH LATE THIS WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST, CREATING
BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITY FROM DEADHORSE EAST. A PERIOD OF
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM DEADHORSE
EAST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER FOR BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -10 TO -20F RANGE ALONG THE COAST
WITH -20 TO -35F IN INLAND AREAS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
- NO PRECIPITATION AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
ANALYSIS AND CONFIDENCE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
ARCTIC AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES WEST OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR. A FRONT TRAILING THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING AN AREA OF
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THIS MORNING AND
WILL SPREAD WEST TO THE WEST COAST BY TONIGHT. GENERALLY 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM FAIRBANKS WEST TO THE WEST COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A 955 MB LOW PERSISTS JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC, THIS IS
CREATING A STRONG NE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK, BRINGING STRONG EASTERLY WINDS TO THE
WEST COAST AND STRONG EASTERLY TANANA VALLEY JET WINDS NEAR DELTA
JUNCTION. AFTER PRECIPITATION EXITS THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY, A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST, BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE WHOLE
FORECAST AREA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN, BUT DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TIMING OF SNOW ARRIVING AND EXITING THE WEST
COAST. SNOW ARRIVED EARLIER THAN EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR,
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FASTER
THAN MODELS ARE SHOWING. THE ECMWF WAS THE CLOSEST TO FORECASTING
THE ARRIVAL TIME FOR THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND CONTINUES TO MOVE
THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. WE WILL TREND THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF AS IT IS VERIFYING THE
BEST WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH WE WILL SPEED UP THE SYSTEM EVEN A
BIT MORE THAN THE MODEL. OTHERWISE, FORECAST TWEAKS WERE MOSTLY
MINOR FOR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR BLOWING SNOW FOR KOTZEBUE FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW FOR THE EASTERN BEAUFORT
COAST.
EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIGHT IF THERE IS ANY AND THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE
YK DELTA REGION. THERE'S DECENT ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THAT A
NOTEWORTHY WARM FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE PIVOTING ACROSS THE AK PENINSULA. AT THIS TIME, THE MOST
NOTEWORTHY CHANGE WILL BE MUCH WARMER TEMPS INCLUDING POTENTIAL
FOR ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS FOR FAVORED DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ850.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ817.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ804-805.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ837.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801>807-812-814-815-852-857-858-860.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-855.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ809.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-859-861.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-850-856.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816-851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ817.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ817.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ850-853-854-856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ853.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ854.
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