991
FXAK69 PAFG 181118
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
218 AM AKST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. WINDS DIMINISH ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST AND THE WEST COAST TODAY, WHILE THE TANANA VALLEY JET
REMAINS IN PLAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT THURSDAY, RESULTING IN GALES DEVELOPING THROUGH THE STRAIT
SOUTH TO ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 0 TO 10 ABOVE ZERO AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO.
- TANANA VALLEY JET REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH IN DELTA JUNCTION AND UP TO 20 MPH TOWARDS
NENANA.
- SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS DEVELOP IN THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES THURSDAY
EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. CLOUD
COVER INCREASES FRIDAY.
- WINDS DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO TO TEENS BELOW ZERO ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE BROOKS RANGE
AND IN THE TEENS BELOW TO NEAR 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ARCTIC PLAINS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- OFFSHORE WINDS DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN TO GALE FORCE THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE Y-K DELTA FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANALYSIS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN REMAINS QUIET. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN NW TERRITORIES ACROSS THE ARCTIC WATERS TO SIBERIA, WITH
A 537 DAM CENTER 350 NM NORTH OF NUIQSUT, WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ARCTIC PLAINS. THE RIDGE CENTER SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NW TERRITORIES JOINING THE RIDGING EXTENDING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. MEANWHILE THE WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE
ARCTIC PLAINS DEVELOPS INTO A 531 DAM LOW CENTERED NEAR NUIQSUT
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WEAKENS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A 541
DAM RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER SIBERIA. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE FAR NORTHERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA.
AT THE SURFACE, A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED 300 NM NORTH OF KAKTOVIK
DROPS SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THIS
EVENING BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON AND
SOUTHERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES; THIS ALLOWS THE WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TO RELAX. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH,
IT MAINTAINS THE TANANA VALLEY JET THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, AND
INCREASES SOUTHEAST WINDS AT EAGLE A BIT THURSDAY. A PIECE OF
ENERGY OF OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST BREAKS OFF THURSDAY
MORNING AND QUICKLY PUSHES NORTHEAST DEVELOPING INTO A 1013 MB LOW
NEAR PRUDHOE BAY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST. FURTHER SOUTH, A 953 MB LOW NEAR NIKOLSKI LIFTS
NORTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND WEAKENS THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA
FRIDAY. AS THESE LOWS TRACK NORTHWEST, THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
THROUGH BERING STRAIT RESULTING IN GALES DEVELOPING.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR WITH UPPER LEVEL LOWS IN THE HIGH ARCTIC AND IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC TO THE ALEUTIANS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE, STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING STORM FORCE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND SUNDAY INTO MID-
WEEK. THIS WILL HELP RAPIDLY INCREASE SEA ICE GROWTH TOWARDS ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND, BUT MAY ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FREEZING SPRAY IN
SAVOONGA AND GAMBELL. MODELS STRUGGLE WITH FEATURE PLACEMENT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FRONT MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR, BRINGING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES LARGELY ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT THIS
WEEKEND. COASTAL EROSION IS THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801>804-815-850-852-853-860-861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ805-808-855-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ809-814-859.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-817.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ817.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ854.
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