817
FXAK69 PAFG 190056
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
356 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH THE
BERING STRAIT THURSDAY, RESULTING IN GALES DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
STRAIT SOUTH TO ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
BERING STRAIT AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 0 TO 10 ABOVE ZERO AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO.
- TANANA VALLEY JET REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH IN DELTA JUNCTION AND UP TO 20 MPH TOWARDS
NENANA.
- SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS DEVELOP IN THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES THURSDAY
EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. CLOUD
COVER INCREASES FRIDAY.
- WINDS DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO TO TEENS BELOW ZERO ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE BROOKS RANGE
AND IN THE TEENS BELOW TO NEAR 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ARCTIC PLAINS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- OFFSHORE WINDS DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN TO GALE FORCE THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE Y-K DELTA FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANALYSIS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE...
RIDGING WEAKENS OVER THE INTERIOR AS TROUGHING DROPS ACROSS
THE E BROOKS RANGE ON THU. RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR
ON FRIDAY. WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS DEVELOPS INTO A
531 DAM LOW CENTERED NEAR NUIQSUT THURSDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
WEAKENS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A 541 DAM RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
SIBERIA. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FAR NORTHERN
PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS INTO
THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH UPPER LEVEL LOWS IN
THE HIGH ARCTIC AND IN THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE ALEUTIANS.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING STORM FORCE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP RAPIDLY INCREASE SEA ICE
GROWTH TOWARDS ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, BUT MAY ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
FREEZING SPRAY IN SAVOONGA AND GAMBELL. TEMPERATURES LARGELY
ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE, WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT THIS
WEEKEND. COASTAL EROSION IS THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-803-806-807-815-850-852-853-856-
861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ804.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ805-808-855.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816-817.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ817.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851-854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860.
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