796
FXAK69 PAFG 191058
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
158 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. A SERIES OF LOWS MOVING
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA RESULTS
IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP, WITH
GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ON ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND AND 60 MPH AT
DIOMEDE, POINT HOPE, AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH WIND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 0 TO 10 ABOVE ZERO AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO.
- TANANA VALLEY JET REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 45 MPH IN DELTA JUNCTION.
- SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS DEVELOP IN THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS EVENING
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE
IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- CLOUD COVER INCREASES BRIEFLY ACROSS THE ARCTIC PLAINS AND THE
COAST TODAY AS A LOW MOVES EAST, CLEARING TONIGHT BEHIND IT.
- STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST, PRIMARILY WEST OF POINT LAY, WITH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH
POSSIBLE AT POINT HOPE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR POINT HOPE.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- NORTHERLY GALES DEVELOP THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND FRIDAY, STRENGTHENING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND PERSISTING
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ON ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND AND UP TO 60 MPH ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND
DIOMEDE. HIGH WIND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
- GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE Y-K DELTA AND ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOVE
ZERO BY SATURDAY.
ANALYSIS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY BECOMING MORE
MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS DIFFERENCES ARISE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
THE EXACT TIMING, STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT OF LOWS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE YUKON AND NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES, AS WELL AS ACROSS SIBERIA, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR UTQIAGVIK THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR UTQIAGVIK
WEAKENS AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY, WHILE THE
RIDGING OVER SIBERIA STRENGTHENS TO 540 DAM AND THE RIDGING OVER
CANADA SLIDES SOUTHEAST. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FAR
NORTHERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA AND ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS INTO
THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA.
AT THE SURFACE, A PIECE OF ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST
QUICKLY DEVELOPS INTO A 1010 MB LOW 50 NM NORTH OF POINT THOMPSON
THIS AFTERNOON, MOVING TO 100 NM NORTHEAST OF MACKENZIE BAY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO BANKS ISLAND SATURDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE LOW, WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTH SLOPE AND ARCTIC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND THE YUKON MOVES SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAINTAINING THE TANANA VALLEY JET. TURNING
ATTENTION SOUTHWEST, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
BERING SEA, WITH A 963 MB LOW 150 NM NORTHEAST OF ATKA LIFTING
NORTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND WEAKENING TODAY. A 972
MB LOW MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND
WEAKENS TO 976 MB AS IT MOVES TO 100 NM EAST OF THE PRIBILOFS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST, FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER LOW MOVING NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA SATURDAY. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW SATURDAY PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AND INTO THE
INTERIOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING INCREASING SNOW CHANCES.
AS THESE LOWS TRACK NORTHWEST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA
STRENGTHENS TO 1036 MB, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE STATE, ESPECIALLY THROUGH BERING STRAIT RESULTING IN STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR WITH UPPER LEVEL LOWS IN THE HIGH ARCTIC AND IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC TO ALEUTIANS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE, STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING STORM FORCE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND SUNDAY INTO MID-
WEEK. MODELS STRUGGLE WITH FEATURE PLACEMENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE ARCTIC
COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR, BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW.
TEMPERATURES LARGELY ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE, WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT THIS
WEEKEND. COASTAL EROSION IS THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ801.
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ820-821.
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ827.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801>807-850-852-853-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-855.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810-811-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ817.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ817.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851-854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ861.
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