559
FXAK69 PAFG 192134
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1234 PM AKST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. THE MAIN
SOURCE OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL BE COMING THIS WEEKEND IN THE
BERING STRAIT REGION. A SERIES OF LOWS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVE
THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE BERING. THIS, COUPLED
WITH A HIGH IN SIBERIA WILL RESULT IN A PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
THE BERING STRAIT CAUSING VERY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM
POINT HOPE TO ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR OVER
70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- EAST WINDS IN DELTA JUNCTION WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. SOUTHERLY AK
RANGE GAP WINDS TO 45 MPH TONIGHT WHICH WEAKEN BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BREEZY IN EASTERN
INTERIOR VALLEYS (EAGLE) WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 10-20 BELOW ZERO AROUND
FAIRBANKS TO 25-35 BELOW ZERO FROM FORT YUKON TO NORTHWAY.
- WARNING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO BY SUNDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW BLOSSOMS OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR (YUKON FLATS)
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- NORTHERLY GALES DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE BERING STRAIT AND
STRENGTHEN TO NEAR STORM FORCE SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS NEAR
OR OVER 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM POINT HOPE TO ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS REMAINING
LARGELY ABOVE ZERO THIS WEEKEND.
- STAYING DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SNOW WILL TRY TO DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE NW ARCTIC COAST WITH VISIBILITY TO 1/4
MILE AT TIMES. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT.
- STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST,
PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF POINT LAY THIS WEEKEND. GUSTS OF 60-70
MPH ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY IN POINT HOPE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ANALYSIS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE...
PERSISTENT LOWS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING WILL RUN INTO A
BLOCKING HIGH IN SIBERIA. THIS WILL FORCE A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
FORM OVER THE BERING STRAIT WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 60-70 MPH IN
POINT HOPE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM DIOMEDE TO ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAPID ICE GROWTH AND A POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IN ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN ALASKA.
THE NEXT SYSTEMS WE WILL BE WATCHING ARE A LOW MOVING NORTH INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA PROVIDING A FRONT WITH MOISTURE, AND A TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC PROVIDING COOLER AIR NEXT WEEK.
THESE TWO FEATURES MERGING WILL GIVE A CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MID- WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE IS
DECENTLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SNOW, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE IT WILL SNOW. RIGHT NOW, IT IS LOOKING LIKE WIDESPREAD SNOW
BEGINS TO SET UP SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE, INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR FROM FORT YUKON TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA. MORE ON THIS
WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE, AN AREA OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP, THERE IS
IMPROVING CONFIDENCE WITH THAT. HOWEVER, PLACEMENT WILL BE KEY.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WHEREVER IT
DEVELOPS, IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIONARY FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A WIDE SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW. THE "BULLSEYE" FOR
HEAVY SNOW LOOKS TO BE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE TO BETTLES
AND SOUTHWEST TOWARDS UNALAKLEET. HOWEVER, NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS
AREA CANNOT BE RULED OUT JUST YET AS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS TO
MOVE. FOR EXAMPLE, IF THE TROUGH DROPPING FROM THE ARCTIC IS A BIT
FASTER, THIS WOULD BRING THE SWATH OF SNOW FARTHER SOUTHEAST. IF
THE GULF OF ALASKA STORM IS SLOWER, IT WOULD BRING THE SNOW
SOUTHEAST AS WELL AND VICE VERSA, SLOWER TROUGH AND FASTER GULF
STORM WOULD BOTH RESULT IN SNOW FARTHER NORTHWEST. THERE ARE A
NUMBER OF OUTCOMES THAT COULD HAPPEN, BUT WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS A
SCENARIO THAT LEAVES FAIRBANKS OUT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW, AND IT
BEING CENTERED FROM THE NE ARCTIC COAST TO UNALAKLEET.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT THIS
WEEKEND. COASTAL EROSION IS THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ801.
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ820-821.
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ827.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801>805-807-850-852-853-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816-817.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ817.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851-854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ851.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ861.
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