095
FXAK69 PAFG 201135
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
235 AM AKST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SIBERIA RESULTS IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
BERING STRAIT TO ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. VERY STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP FROM POINT HOPE TO ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND.
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR OVER 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- TANANA VALLEY JET REMAINS ACTIVE, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH IN
DELTA JUNCTION TODAY. SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS TO 45 MPH IN THE AK RANGE
PASSES,DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.
- ON SATURDAY, EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE OVER INTERIOR
SUMMITS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS, WHERE WINDS
WILL GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO BY SUNDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW BLOSSOMS OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR (YUKON FLATS)
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG PERSIST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY.
- VERY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST,
PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF POINT LAY THIS WEEKEND. GUSTS OF 60 TO 70
MPH ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY IN POINT HOPE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP THROUGH
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE PASSES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FURTHER EAST,
THROUGH ANAKTUVUK AND ATIGUN PASSES, NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
EXPECTED.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- NORTHERLY GALES DEVELOP TODAY IN THE BERING STRAIT AND
STRENGTHEN TO NEAR STORM FORCE LATE SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS NEAR
OR OVER 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM POINT HOPE TO ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAPID SEA ICE GROWTH
AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY ON ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND.
- ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST, NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
GUST TO 40 TO 50 MPH. NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NOATAK VALLEY SUNDAY.
- GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY SNOW CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR.
ANALYSIS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS FROM SIBERIA SOUTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WEAKENS AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
HIGH ARCTIC DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FAR NORTHERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA AND ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW NEAR POINT THOMSON WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
EAST OF MACKENZIE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND THE YUKON MOVES SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAINTAINING THE TANANA VALLEY JET AND GUSTY
WINDS AT EAGLE. A SERIES OF LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA, ACROSS THE AK PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THESE LOWS MOVE INTO
THE BERING, HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA STRENGTHENS, TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BERING STRAIT WITH WINDS GUSTS OF 60
TO 70 MPH DEVELOPING FROM POINT HOPE TO ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. AS
THESE LOWS LIFT NORTHWEST, THEY PUSH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AND INTO THE INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FRONTS AND A TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF THE ARCTIC WILL INCREASE SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MID-WEEK FROM THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST TO THE BROOKS
RANGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR FROM FORT YUKON TO THE SEWARD
PENINSULA.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENT THIS
WEEKEND DUE TO WEAKER RIDGING OVER SIBERIA. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA SOUTH THROUGH
THE BERING STRAIT AND TO ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WHEN IT COMES TO SNOW AMOUNTS,
PLACEMENT, AND TIMING SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR WITH UPPER LEVEL LOWS IN THE HIGH ARCTIC AND IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC TO ALEUTIANS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE, STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING STORM FORCE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND SUNDAY INTO MID-
WEEK. MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT, TIMING, AND AMOUNT OF
SNOW. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
WHEREVER IT DEVELOPS, IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIONARY FOR A FEW
DAYS. THIS COULD RESULT IN A WIDE SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO FALL OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
TO BETTLES AND SOUTHWEST TOWARDS UNALAKLEET. HIGH TEMPERATURES
LARGELY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF ZERO SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE PLUMMETING AS COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES TO THE INTERIOR.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT THIS
WEEKEND. COASTAL EROSION IS THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ801.
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ820-821.
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ827.
PK...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ801-807-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803>806-850-852-853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810-811-857.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816-817-851-854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816-817.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ856.
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