598
FXAK69 PAFG 211403
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
503 AM AKST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY WITH GUSTS
RANGING 60 TO 70 MPH ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM POINT HOPE TO THE
WESTERN SEWARD PENINSULA TO ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. THESE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK. STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
WILL AFFECT TRAVEL ALONG INTERIOR HIGHWAY SUMMITS.
DISCUSSION
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE INTERIOR WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY
AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GUSTS IN SOME
LOCATIONS ALONG DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS WILL REACH UP TO 45 TO 50
MPH. BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1/2 MILE AT TIMES.
- ON SUNDAY, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BEGIN FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN INTERIOR. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY REACHING 8 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW IN
SOME AREAS. SNOW WILL PRIMARILY FALL NORTH OF THE LINE FROM
TANANA TO EAGLE, BUT AREAS FARTHER SOUTH MAY STILL SEE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.
- A TANANA VALLEY JET CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS 20 TO
30 MPH FOR AREAS AROUND DELTA JUNCTIONS WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- TODAY, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE FROM POINT HOPE
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND AND WILL
STRENGTHEN FURTHER TO 40 TO 50 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS NEAR 70
MPH FOR ST. LAWRENCE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- WINDS AROUND RED DOG MINE AND NOATAK AND INTO THE LOWER KOBUK
VALLEY WILL REACH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH
TONIGHT WITH BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/2 MILES AT
TIMES.
- WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WE WILL SEE RAPID ICE GROWTH FROM
THE BERING STRAIT TO ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. WITH OPEN WATER STILL
TO THE NORTH OF SAVOONGA THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL FREEZING
SPRAY CONCERNS IN TOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE 0, THAT WILL HELP TO MINIMIZE THE FREEZING SPRAY
CONCERNS.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST NEAR POINT
HOPE WILL REACH SPEEDS NEAR 45 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 60
MPH. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEK.
- NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN ATIGUN AND ANAKTUVUK PASS WILL GET UP TO
30 MPH ON SUNDAY. THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH.
ANALYSIS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE...
AT 500 MB, A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CANADA OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR.
A 538 DAM HIGH IS SITUATED OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND EXTENDS OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SPREAD OVER THE
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA AND THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH W OF
WRANGEL ISLAND. LASTLY, THERE IS A 500 DAM LOW IN THE W GULF OF
ALASKA.
THE 500 DAM LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AS THE SHORTWAVE NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND DEEPENS AND
MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE CHUKCHI TOWARDS THE W ARCTIC COAST. ON
SUNDAY MORNING, TOGETHER WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA AND
SIBERIA, A DEFORMATION BAND FORMS THAT SPANS ACROSS THE STATE FROM
THE YK DELTA TO THE YUKON FLATS. THIS DEFORMATION BAND WILL BE
THE MAIN DRIVER OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR,
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE SNOW. HOWEVER, MOST MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF SNOW NORTH OF
FAIRBANKS AND SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER E SIBERIA. A
959 MB LOW CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL TRACK NORTHWEST
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE BERING SEA. AS IT DOES,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM POINT HOPE TO ST LAWRENCE TIGHTENS
RESULTING IN NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT. THERE
IS STRONG CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE INTERIOR ALSO TIGHTENS AS A SERIES OF SURFACE
LOWS MOVE NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA RESULTING IN 30 TO 40 MPH
WINDS ALONG INTERIOR SUMMITS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED, THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
BERING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE
N PACIFIC MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA. WINDS
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT FROM WALES TO ST. LAWRENCE WILL LIKELY
DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AT 500
MB THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL PERSIST AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE W ARCTIC COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. LIGHT SNOW FROM THE YK DELTA TO THE
YUKON FLATS WILL SLOWLY TAPER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND
EVENTUALLY EJECT EASTWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK, AN ARCTIC
TROUGH WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST COAST AND
INTERIOR.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT THIS
WEEKEND. COASTAL EROSION IS THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ801.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ814.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ815-816-832.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ820-821.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ827.
PK...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ801-807-816-817-851-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801-802-804-805-852.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ807-857.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ810-811-850.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816-817-851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ853.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
JT
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